As we prepare for Super Bowl LIV, there won’t be any shortage of information and opinions for us all to consider. For our own research purposes, taking a step back and remembering to trust our own process and instincts can make a big difference. One thing that can be really helpful is understanding the trends for the Big Game itself. Here are 10 nuggets of intel to consider for Super Bowl LIV.
Favorites Lead All-Time, But Underdogs Have Made Headway Recently
In the previous 53 Super Bowls, favorites have a straight-up record of 35-17-1 with one pick’em spread in the equation. That’s a big edge, but the gap has closed a lot over the past decade. For the past 10 Super Bowls, favorites are just 3-6-1 overall.
Spread Leans Towards Favorites, But Underdogs Have Made Lots of Noise Lately
Favorites are also finding success against the spread in the Big Game with a mark of 27-23-3 overall. However, underdogs have covered more often than not over the past two decades. For the last 20 Super Bowls, favorites are 6-12-2 ATS.
Over/Under Has Been a Crapshoot
It’s nearly an exact split historically on the over/under as the record stands at 27-25. That’s even more apparent when you consider just the past 20 years as the mark sits at 10-10 over that span. Back in the ’70s, the total leaned towards the under, while the ’90s was a time with a lot of overs.
Average Margin of Victory is 14 Points
Two touchdowns is a huge difference, but understand that the number is skewed by a number of blowouts through the years. We’ve seen a lot more close games in the modern era. Since 2000, 11 of 20 Super Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less.
NFC Leads All-Time by Margin of 27-26
Over the 53 editions of the Super Bowl, it has been a coin flip to decide the winning conference on an all-time basis. However, there have been trends throughout the years. The 70s and early 2000s were owned by the AFC, while the NFC had a dominant run in the 80s and 90s. For the last 10, it’s a 5-5 split.
Favorites are 8-6-1 Straight-Up in Super Bowls with Tight Spreads
There have been 15 Super Bowls in which the spread at kickoff stood at a field goal or less. Favorites have won eight of those games, underdogs were victorious in six and one of the spreads was a pick’em. On an ATS basis for those 15 games, the mark is the same at 8-6-1.
A QB Has Been Super Bowl MVP 29 Times
No other position has reached double digits with Super Bowl MVP trophies. Backs and receivers are next on the list with seven awards each, while the remainder has been split among defenders and special teams players. For the last 10, it’s seven for QBs, two for linebackers, and one for wide receivers.
Chiefs Are 1-1 in Super Bowl Appearances
It’s been a long time since Kansas City made it this far. The club fell to the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl I and took down the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV. The Chief’s all-time record in the postseason stands at 12-19. Since 2010, the mark is 4-6.
49ers 5-1 in Super Bowls
The dominant 49ers of the 80s and 90s snagged five rings. The last appearance for San Francisco in the Big Game came in Super Bowl XLVII when they lost to the Baltimore Ravens by a score of 34-31. The 49ers are 33-21 all-time in the postseason and 7-3 since 2010.
This Will Be a Record-Breaking Year for Legal Super Bowl Betting in the US
How do we know that? The trend is our friend. A ton of money was wagered at legal and online sportsbooks for last year’s edition of the Big Game. This time around, even more states have legalized sports betting. It’s a boom time for bettors, so take a second and acknowledge how far it has all come in a short period of time.
Best of luck with your Super Bowl LIV wagers and enjoy the game!