I hope you’ve taken the time to read through this post, detailing the methodology of deriving these early 2019 Win Totals.
I’ll repeat this as a reminder of what this exercise is, and what it is not; the two most important things to keep in mind in this exercise are 1) these numbers are entirely derived off of the full 2018 season data and my power ratings and 2) these are being published well before the NFL actually releases the full schedule. Right now we know each team’s opponents — home and away — we just don’t know the order or the dates of the games.
In 2019, the AFC East has the NFC East and AFC North as rotational opponents, as well as a team from the AFC West and AFC South.
New England: 11.7 wins
Unsurprisingly, the New England Patriots far and away outpace the rest of the division with an NFL-high season win total projection of 11.7 games.
My projections have New England’s single-game win percentage probability ranging from a high of 94.9% (home vs. Miami as 14.45 favorites) to a low of 46.7%, in the single game that I have them as underdogs in, as a +1.87 point dog at Baltimore.
As you’d expect, there’s a significant drop-off from the Patriots to the rest of that division. Same story, different year.
Buffalo: 6.8 wins
Coming in next is Buffalo, who I have projected at 6.8 wins.
Buffalo’s home slate has them as 68 – 69% probability favorites three times (Miami, the NY Jets, and Washington), while 31-32% underdogs to the Patriots and Ravens.
On the road is where the Bills’ season projects to face significant challenges, as I don’t have them favored once. They are a 50% pick’em at Miami, as a high, while they are 11.7% and 11.8% probability underdogs at New England and at Pittsburgh (11.6 and 11.5 point underdogs respectively.)
New York Jets: 5.8 wins
Projected to come in third in the AFC East are the New York Jets at 5.8 wins. The Jets win probabilities range from a low of single digits (8.5% as 13.8 point dogs) at New England, to a high water mark of 64% at home vs Miami. The Jets are not favorites on the road in a single game at this point. That’s sure to make Adam Gase’s eyes bounce around, following the magic taco.
Miami: 4.7 wins
Bringing up the rear of the AFC East in my projections are the Miami Dolphins at only 4.7 wins.
The Dolphins see a high mark of 52% – 54% win probability in home games vs. the Jets, the Bengals and Washington. On the road, the Dolphins don’t exceed a 36% percent win probability (at the NY Jets as 3.44 point dogs), and are in the single-digits twice, at the Patriots (5.1%, +14.45) and at Pittsburgh (6.0%, +14.32).
Check back, and we’ll walk through projections for the AFC South.