Now that we have gotten past the first two rounds of an extraordinarily entertaining postseason, we look forward to the 2022 NHL Stanley Cup Semifinals. We have a final matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference.
Below, I break down this series and give out my best bet. The play below is 1.5 units or 1.5% of your betting bankroll.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Edmonton Oilers (+200)
The Edmonton Oilers enter the Western Conference Final after beating the Calgary Flames in a postseason edition of the Battle of Alberta. Edmonton dominated the series as they beat the Flames in five games, winning the last four in a row, with three wins coming by at least a two-goal margin.
Coach Jay Woodcroft made a phenomenal adjustment at the beginning of that series when he stacked Kane/McDavid/Draisaitl all on the same line. This three-headed monster dominated the series as they combined for 35 points over those five games.
Out of the four remaining teams left in the playoffs, this line ranks first in expected goals for (xGF) per 60 minutes. Due to the sheer dominance of the Kane/McDavid/Draisaitl line, the Oilers rank first amongst the last four teams in five-on-five xGF per 60 minutes.
Backing up this Oilers offense is starting goaltender Mike Smith, who had a good series against the Flames despite a few blunders. Smith went 4-0 with a 0.907 save percentage in the Second Round.
Smith has been great in these playoffs as he boasts an 8-3 record with a 0.927 save percentage and 2.70 goals-against average thus far. Amongst the four remaining starting goaltenders left in the playoffs, Smith ranks third in five-on-five goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes.
With how solid his numbers have been, that ranking indicates how elite Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin have been in the Eastern Conference. Of course, this means that the one goaltender who trails Smith in this metric is Colorado’s starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper.
Colorado Avalanche (-250)
As a big favorite in this series, the Colorado Avalanche enters the Western Conference Final in great form. They disposed of the St. Louis Blues in six games after sweeping the Nashville Predators in the First Round. With that being said, Colorado will run into a fully healthy team for the first time in this postseason.
In the First Round, the Predators were without starting goaltender Juuse Saros. Without Saros, the Predators would not have been a playoff team, and that loss was absolutely crippling for them.
While the Avalanche most likely would have won that series even if Saros was healthy, the Predators could have stolen a game or two. In the Second Round, the Blues lost starting goaltender Jordan Binnington in Game 3 due to injury.
Going from Binnington to Husso was a massive drop-off in every single statistic and metric. While it is unfair to say that the Blues would have won the series if Binnington was healthy, the fact that St. Louis took this team to six games despite losing him is very telling.
Even if Colorado goes on to the Stanley Cup Final, this price is far too long as they are going against an arguably hotter team in the Edmonton Oilers. As I mentioned in the previous section, Edmonton will have the goaltending advantage as Darcy Kuemper has not been great this postseason.
Over nine playoff games, Kuemper possesses a 0.904 save percentage and -0.307 five-on-five GSAx per 60 minutes. The one advantage Colorado has over Edmonton is their defense.
Both the forwards and defensemen for the Avalanche are very good defensively. The Avalanche ranks first amongst the remaining four playoff teams in five-on-five expected goals against (xGA) per 60 minutes. With that being said, I do not believe that any team can limit McDavid and Draisaitl until I actually see It.
At 2/1, give me the team with the better goaltender and the best player on the planet.
Best Bet: Edmonton Oilers To Win the Series (+200)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.