After hitting on over 56% of our picks in our daily college basketball picks column, we are back to provide insight on the NCAA tournament.
Like always, March Madness kicks off with the First Four games, with two matchups of No. 11 seeds and two of No. 16 seeds playing their way into the 64-team field. These First Four games at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, often provide intense drama and serve as the perfect appetizer to the marathon of Round of 64 games we will consume on Thursday and Friday.
YTD: 49-38-1
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Best College Basketball Bets for the First Four
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
#11 Nevada Wolf Pack vs. #11 Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5)
Arizona State is the household name in this matchup hailing from the Pac-12, but would it even be an NCAA Tournament team if not for a half-court buzzer-beater at Arizona or a two-point non-conference win against Creighton when the Bluejays were without center Ryan Kalkbrenner?
All things considered, this feels like a line begging bettors to take Arizona State, as -1.5 points do not seem like a lot to lay to a team that is one of two NCAA Tournament teams (Providence is the other) entering on a three-game losing streak. However, Nevada’s ability to protect the basketball and get to the free-throw line at a high clip are the biggest reasons we expect it to be competitive in this matchup.
Nevada ranks in the top 25 nationally with a 15.2% turnover percentage. In addition, the Wolf Pack rank 22nd in free throw rate, and they knock down their free throws at the sixth-highest rate (79.2%) in the country. Defensively, the Wolf Pack do a great job at clogging the paint and making their opponents shoot over the top, as their 42.2% opposing 3-point attempt rate ranks in the top 40 of all D-I teams.
Nevada has a matchup nightmare with 6-foot-6 point guard Kenan Blackshear. Blackshear is a bully inside that can post up smaller defenders and spearheads a defense that allows 0.93 points per possession with him on the floor, per HoopLens.com. Arizona State’s key number is 65 points, as it is 14-0 when allowing 65 or fewer points this season. However, Nevada ranked fourth among all Mountain West teams with a 72.6 points per game scoring average this season. Thus, we expect a Nevada team that ranks 61st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency to do enough to cross that 65-point threshold.
Arizona State is a much better team as an underdog (9-5 ATS) than a favorite (6-14 ATS). In addition, Arizona State has lost six times as favorites this season, while Nevada went 4-6 SU as underdogs and nearly beat a Kansas State team in the non-conference that earned a No. 3 seed in the tournament. Therefore, we are taking the Wolf Pack and the points.
Bet: Nevada +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Other Leans:
FDU +2.5
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.