The third Saturday in May is just days away and with it the 151st Preakness Stakes. The Run for the Black-eyed Susans goes off around 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 16, from Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland. The Triple Crown's 2nd jewel takes a one-year hiatus from historic Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore while it undergoes renovations required to retain the race itself. Here’s a look at our 2026 Preakness Stakes best bets along with the odds for the horses and trends to know.
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2026 Preakness Stakes Best Bets & Trends
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1909 (#* denotes wins since 2000)
1 – Taj Mahal (5-1) – (Post 1 winners – 13, Most Recent – National Treasure, 2023) 3*
2 – Ocelli (6-1) – (Post 2 winners – 13, Most Recent – Journalism, 2025) 2*
3 – Crupper (30-1) – (Post 3 winners – 12, Most Recent – California Chrome, 2014) 1*
4 – Robusta (30-1) – (Post 4 winners – 14, Most Recent – Swiss Skydiver, 2020) 3*
5 – Talkin (20-1) – (Post 5 winners – 13, Most Recent – Early Voting, 2022) 3*
6 – Chip Honcho (5-1) – (Post 6 winners – 17, Most Recent – Seize the Grey, 2024) 4*
7 – The Hell We Did (15-1) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Justify, 2018) 3*
8 – Bull by the Horns (30-1) – (Post 8 winners – 10, Most Recent – Bernardini, 2006) 2*
9 – Iron Honor (9-2) – (Post 9 winner – 4, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012) 2*
10 – Napoleon Solo (8-1) – (Post 10 winner – 2, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012) 0*
11 – Corona de Oro (30-1) – (Post 11 winner – 2, Most Recent – Point Given, 2001) 1*
12 – Incredibolt (5-1) – (Post 12 winner – 3, Most Recent – Afleet Alex, 2005) 1*
13 – Great White (15-1) – (Post 13 winner – 1, Most Recent – Rachel Alexandra, 2009) 1*
14 – Pretty Boy Miah (15-1) – (Post 14 winner – 0, N/A) 0*
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Preakness. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.
Not by a Longshot?
Only four of the 150 Preakness Stakes winners all-time have opened with longer odds than 15-1. While 2024's winner, Seize the Grey, opened at 15-1, this likely rules out Crupper, Robusta, Talkin, Bull by the Horns, Corona de Oro, and Pretty Boy Miah. All of these horses opening at 20-1. In fact, the longest opening odds for a Preakness winner was 23-1 (Master Derby, 1975). That being said, since 2009 the same amount of longshots (6) have won the Preakness as favorites (6) so this trend has bucked in recent years.
Positive Preakness Trends
My Old Kentucky Home
106 of the 150 Preakness winners have been Kentucky-bred, including the last ten. However, of the 44 winners not bred in the Blue Grass State, eight were homegrown winners, bred in Maryland (which sadly has zero entrants this year), although half of them won in the late 19th century. The last New York-bred winner was Funny Cide in 2003 and the only other time a Great Britain-bred horse won the Preakness Stakes was War Cloud back in 1918. The Preakness was split into two divisions that year due to the amount of entries, so a GB-bred horse has never won the Preakness in the current form. The last winner bred outside of Kentucky was California Chrome in 2014. Can you guess where he was bred? Florida-bred Taj Mahal is the only entrants out of 14 this year not bred in the Bluegrass State.
Making the Grade
Since 1997, 26 of the 29 Preakness winners had a graded stakes victory and 18-of-29 had won a Grade 1 race prior to the Preakness. In fact, each of the last 29 winners had, at worst, come in second in a graded stakes race. In this field, Taj Mahal (LS), Crupper (LS), Bull by the Horns (LS), Iron Honor (G3), Napoleon Solo (G1), Incredibolt (G3), and Great White (LS) have all won graded stakes races.
Need for Speed
In recent years, the Preakness has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 14 of the last 17 winners have been within 4 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only three horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Rombauer in 2021, Exaggerator in 2014, and last year’s winner, Journalism, who was 5.0 lengths behind the pace. Exaggerator rode the rail in the firmest part of the sloppy track on his Preakness Day in a perfect storm. The relatively short 1 3/16 mile race leaves little room for deep closers. While stretch runs happen, it's increasingly rare to win from the back of the pack. Five of the last 16 winners have been wire-to-wire winners including the last two champions, American Treasure and Seize the Grey, the former being the winner of Baffert’s eighth Black-eyed Susan wreath.
#Goals
Bob Baffert has the most Preakness wins all-time at eight. Granted, Baffert has won eight of the last 29 races while Walden’s final victory came in 1888 which is a testament to just how hard it is to wear the Black-eyed Susans that many times. Say what you want about Baffert’s questionable training practices, the man racks up Ws with three winners in the last decade including two horses (American Pharoah, Justify) on their way to Triple Crowns. His two horses possible for this race, Crude Velocity and Potente, ended up in other directions. Baffert will have to wait another year to extend his Preakness record to nine victories with a horse.
Keeping It 100…or Better
All but one Preakness winner since 1962 have posted an Equibase Speed Figure greater than 100. The lone exception was 2024’s champion, Seize the Grey, who earned a (then) career best 101 figure in last year’s Preakness. That number is going to increase to two this year because none of the 14 horses have ever posted triple digit ratings in their careers. Ocelli and Napoleon Solo both have top ratings of 99, while Chip Honcho has a personal best of 98. Not for nothing, long shot Pretty Boy Miah brings the fourth best top rating of 97, if speed is your thing. For the most part, it's not this field's thing.
Local Whiz Kid
Despite being a long shot, Taj Mahal is a local favorite. He may have been bred in Kentucky, but he has raced his entire career (three races) not only in the state of Maryland, but all 10-minutes from my house at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland. Last year's local entrant, Pay Billy, who was 9: 5-1-1 including a 7: 5-1-0 record with wins in five out of his last six races. Unlike Pay Billy, Taj Mahal is much more lightly raced and undefeated in three career starts. All at Laurel Park and all since February 6. He has also posted impressively increasing speed ratings and loved his last distance, 1 1/8 miles, at the Fredrick Tesio Stakes, which is two turns like the distance as Saturday's race, as well as on this exact same track and that can't be discounted. Anything can happen on race day, and as I alluded to earlier, despite historical bias against long shots, more longshots have won the Preakness than favorites since 2009. Taj Mahal has shown a knack for getting his nose across the finish line first and that can’t be ignored until someone beats him.
Pedigrees
Taj Mahal (Nyquist - Oola Gal, by Quality Road) – A
Ocelli (Connect - Zalia, by Scat Daddy) – RAN
Crupper (Candy Ride - She's All In, by Include) – BTS
Robusta (Accelerate - Urbane Legend, by Into Mischief) – RAN
Talkin (Good Magic - Rote, by Tiznow) – RAN
Chip Honcho (Connect - Miss My Rose, by Magician) – RAN
The Hell We Did (Authentic - Rose's Desert, by Desert God) – A
Bull by the Horns (Essential Quality - No Sweat, by Blame) – BTS
Iron Honor (Nyquist - Orencia, by Blame) – BTS
Napoleon Solo (Liam's Map - Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy) – RAN
Corona de Oro (Bolt d'Oro - Lemon de Oro, by Lemon Drop Kid) – BTS
Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro - Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again) – BTS
Great White (Volatile - Kelly Bag, by Uncle Mo) – BTS
Pretty Boy Miah (Beau Liam - Tryingtolookpretty, by Mineshaft) – RAN
*A denotes Alydar in their 5x pedigree
**RAN denotes Raise a Native in their 5x pedigree
***BTS denotes Raise A Native is back there somewhere just beyond their 5x pedigree
Three of the last six Preakness winners (Swiss Skydiver ’20, Rombauer ’21, National Treasure ’23) had the late, great Alydar (my favorite horse of all time) in their bloodline. The legendary stallion, Raise a Native, sired Alydar and dating back to 2009, the last 17 Preakness winners are descendants of Raise of Native, with all but 2022’s winner, Early Voting, having him as close as within their 5x pedigree. Two horses in this year’s race have ties to Alydar in their 5-cross pedigrees: Taj Mahal and The Hell We Did.
Raise a Native was a foundational sire and direct ancestor of 24 Kentucky Derby champions. He was the son of Native Dancer, who was dam-sire to Northern Dancer, arguably the most influential stallion of the 20th century.
Crupper, Bull by the Horns, Iron Honor, Corona de Oro, Incredibolt, and Great White do not have Raise a Native in their 5x pedigree, all but eliminating them from winning based on recent trends. Even these six horses have names in the past that denote Raise a Native is farther back in their ancestry just outside their 5x pedigrees, showing just how influential he continues to be, an ancestor all 14 horses in the 2026 Preakness despite passing away nearly forty years ago in 1988.
2026 Preakness Stakes Best Bets
- 2026 Preakness Stakes Best Boxed Superfecta: Taj Mahal (1) – Napoleon Solo (10) – Chip Honcho (6) – The Hell We Did (7) | (1-10-6-7)
- 2026 Preakness Stakes Longshot: Pretty Boy Miah (14)
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.
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