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9 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Tuesday (6/28)

by June 28, 2022
Paul Goldschmidt MVP

Let’s check out the top odds, player prop bets, and game picks for Tuesday.

CTAs

Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday

Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals

  • Paul Goldschmidt 2+ Total Bases (-135)
  • Dylan Carlson 2+ Total Bases (+130)
  • Nolan Arenado 2+ Total Bases (+100)

I love these three batters on St. Louis tonight. Braxton Garrett will take the hill for the Marlins. He’s a left-hander with a 4.68 xFIP and a low strikeout rate over the past month.

In those 30 days, he’s allowed a .382 wOBA and a .167 ISO to righties, and both of those numbers are worse than the average.

At the top of the order, Dylan Carlson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado will hit against lefties as right-handed batters.

Carlson has a .571 ISO and wOBA of .588 in his last eight plate appearances against lefties. Goldschmidt has a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .452 against his last 26 lefties. Lastly, Arenado has a .211 ISO with a wOBA of .357 against lefties in his last 22 at-bats. He’s also struck out just 4.5% of the time against lefties.

I love this stack for betting and fantasy. The Cardinals usually have a ton of success against lefties, which won’t change tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs

  • Tommy Pham 2+ Total Bases (+130)
  • Brandon Drury 2+ Total Bases (+105)
  • Luis Castillo Over 5.5 K’s (-156)

The Cincinnati Reds will take on Keegan Thompson of the Chicago Cubs. Thompson has a 5.79 xFIP in the last 30 days and has also walked 10.6% of batters in that same time frame.

Thompson has allowed a .352 wOBA and ISO of .295 in his last 50 plate appearances against righties. Brandon Drury and Tommy Pham are right-handed bats at the top of the order with elevated weighted on-base averages against righties, and Pham has a .230 ISO against righties in the last month.

Lastly, Castillo has earned 23.8% of strikeouts in the last 30 days, striking out one batter every four plate appearances. Against the Cubs, he’ll face five batters who have struck out 22.4% or more in the last 30 days against righties.

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Christian Walker 2+ Total Bases (+130)
  • Jordan Luplow 1+ Hit (-160)
  • Jurickson Profar 1+ Hit (-1950)

Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Padres tonight. He’s got a 4.70 xFIP in the last 30 days and has walked 9.5% of batters in those 30 days.

He’s struggled with righties a bit in the last 30 days, allowing a .230 ISO to his previous 66 righties. He’ll take on Jordan Luplow and Christian Walker, who destroyed lefties in the last 30 days.

Walker has a .500 wOBA and ISO of .555 against lefties in his last 25 plate appearances, while Luplow has a .563 ISO with a wOBA of .479 against lefties in his previous 24 plate appearances. Both have reasonable sample sizes in the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, it’ll be Zac Gallen on the mound for the Diamondbacks. Against lefties, he’s allowed a .352 wOBA and ISO of .231 in his last 59 plate appearances. Jurickson Profar will bat from the left-handed side tonight, and he’s got a .195 ISO and a wOBA of .395 against his last 95 righties.

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