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Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds and Game Pick (2020)

by December 25, 2020
Tyreek Hill

The Atlanta Falcons are soon going to hire a new head coach. They are playing out the string in this season and trying to play spoiler. The Kansas City Chiefs are in first place in the AFC and are trying to nail down the No. 1 seed and a wild card bye in the playoffs. Two teams in very different positions meet in Week 16, in the next-to-last week of the NFL’s pandemic regular season.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Falcons vs. Chiefs >>


  • Opening Line: Chiefs -11.5
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Last Meeting: Falcons 28 vs. Chiefs 29 (12/4/16)

View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Falcons vs. Chiefs >>


The Atlanta Falcons have played better than their 4-10 record would suggest. The problem, though, for this team is that it breaks down at precisely the wrong times. The Falcons have blown numerous double-digit leads this season, and they blew another one this past weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were excellent in the first half but crumbled in the fourth quarter, as they once again let a very winnable game slip through their fingers, 31-27. The Falcons’ loss is actually good in a narrow context since it pushes them higher in the 2021 NFL Draft order, but on a larger overall level, the Falcons’ repeated inability to protect big leads has been extremely frustrating. Interim head coach Raheem Morris has not been able to fix the fundamental problems just-fired head coach Dan Quinn allowed to spiral out of control.

The Falcons play opponents closely and with toughness… but they don’t seal the deal. The Falcons crushed the Las Vegas Raiders, 43-6, on Nov. 29. Since then, the Falcons have lost three games by a combined total of 12 points: five to the Saints, three to the Chargers, and then the four-point loss this past weekend to Tom Brady and the Bucs.

On the other side of the tracks, the Kansas City Chiefs are the exact opposite of the Falcons. The Chiefs have trailed in a number of games this year but almost always make the right play at the right time. Kansas City trailed the Chargers by 11 in Week 2 and won in overtime. The Chiefs trailed Miami by 10 but won by one score. The Chiefs have been behind in many games they have played this season, including to the New Orleans Saints and Drew Brees this past weekend. No sweat – they came back to win that game, just as they scored comeback wins against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Carolina Panthers.

The Chiefs are widely regarded as the best team in the NFL, but they haven’t crushed most of their opponents. Kansas City enters the playoffs knowing that in each of its playoff wins last season, it had to come from behind to win. The Chiefs need to get on top of opponents. They know they can mount comebacks, but they also know that is playing with fire. Patrick Mahomes needs to set the tone in first quarters, and this game against the Falcons can give him a chance to feast on an inconsistent defense that just gave up 31 points in its most recent game.


  • The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss.
  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after gaining over 350 yards in their previous game.

Bottom Line

The Chiefs haven’t been all that reliable in covering the spread at home this season, but the Falcons – after blowing yet another lead at home – might be at a point where they mentally check out and lose in order to protect their draft position.

Pick: Chiefs -10.5

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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.

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