The Arkansas Razorbacks started the season 4-0 but have since dropped two games, falling to 4-2 and 17 in the AP Poll. First, the Razorbacks dropped a game to Georgia, which was expected, and then lost to Ole Miss, 52-51, after going for a two-point conversion with no time on the clock. It was a bold move and one that many will second guess, but if it worked, everyone would talk about the genius play calling. It’s unfortunate, but after your defense allowed 52 points, I’d go for the two-point conversion, too, in that scenario.
On the other hand, the Auburn Tigers are coming off a loss to Georgia, 34-10 and are now 4-2 with losses to two ranked opponents. The fact is that Auburn was never in this game against Georgia from the get-go and has been genuinely inconsistent all year long.
Can Arkansas shake off a couple of losses and get back on track, at home, against Auburn? Here are our picks and predictions for Auburn vs. Arkansas.
- Opening Line: Arkansas -3.5, O/U 52.5
- Current Line: Arkansas -3.5, O/U 53
- Last meeting: October 10, 2020, Auburn 30, Arkansas 28
If you recall, last year, Auburn ended up defeating Arkansas with some controversy involved. Quarterback Bo Nix spiked the ball behind himself, and the refs blew the play dead, saying the spike was a pass. Replay proved it was a fumble, but the call on the field stuck, and Auburn clinched the win on the final drive.
Arkansas wants payback. But they also want to go 5-2 on the season, and Auburn is in their way of doing it. The Razorbacks are averaging 459.7 yards per game on offense along with 32.3 points per game. Quarterback KJ Jefferson has nine touchdowns thrown with three interceptions and has been an excellent leader for this football team.
The passing game isn’t what Arkansas is known for, however. They’re known for rushing the football, as the Razorbacks are averaging 244.8 yards per game on the ground. The offensive line hasn’t done well in pass protection, but they’ve been excellent in the run game and have helped running back Trelon Smith and Co. down the field.
Defensively, Arkansas has struggled a bit this season. In coverage, despite what the stats say can be beaten by Auburn, although they’re only allowing 156 yards passing per game. This stat is a bit misleading, and there’s reason to believe Auburn can throw for yards against Arkansas.
On the other hand, Auburn’s offense has been inconsistent, but the defense has not been. The Tigers are allowing 19.2 points per game and have been elite in all areas but tackling. Auburn has missed some tackles, but overall, they’ve looked outstanding on the defensive end.
The offense averages 35 points per game with 451.3 yards per game, but you can thank a 62-0 win against Alabama State for these numbers. The offense isn’t nearly as good as other offenses that consistently score 35 points per game.
- Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
- Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Razorbacks last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Arkansas’ offense was brilliant against Ole Miss. But most offenses will look that way against that Ole Miss defense. It’s going to be much more challenging to score points against Auburn’s defense that can get after it on the defensive end with pass-rush pressure, coverage, and a solid rushing defense that has allowed just 104.7 yards per game.
Auburn’s pass rush could be too much for Arkansas to handle. However, on the other hand, Auburn’s offense is so inconsistent, it’s hard to trust Bo Nix in games where Auburn is an underdog. He and Auburn play poorly as underdogs. They’re beating up on teams they should be beating up on but losing games that they’re expected to lose.
While I like Auburn more in this game, on the road, it’s hard to bet against Arkansas right now. The Razorbacks have wins over Texas and Texas A&M, and that says a lot about their program. Both of those wins were at home, and they’ll be home again against Auburn.
Instead of picking a side, I’ll take the under 53 in this matchup.
Pick: Under 53 (-110)
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