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Australian Open Women’s Semifinals Match Odds, Picks & Betting Preview (2022)

by January 26, 2022
Ashleigh Barty Tennis Betting Picks

The unpredictable nature of women’s tennis has continued at the first Grand Slam of 2022. While the top seed is among the four women to reach this year’s Australian Open semifinals, plenty of chaos ensued in the draw’s other three quadrants. Joining Australia’s own Ashleigh Barty in the final four are two Americans and a former French Open champion.

Tennis fans are in for a fun doubleheader Thursday as we determine which two women will battle for the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup this weekend.

The following is a betting preview for both Australian Open women’s semifinals. Read on for the match odds, analysis, and betting picks to help get you ready for Thursday’s tennis action Down Under.

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Australian Open Women’s Semifinals Event Details 

Date: Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022
Venue: Rod Laver Arena — Melbourne, AU
Start Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Australian Open Women’s Semifinals Betting Odds and Picks

All odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

(1) Ashleigh Barty vs. Madison Keys

Moneyline: Barty: (-450) | Keys: (+340)
Games Spread: Barty: -4.5 (-110) | Keys: +4.5 (-110)
Total Games: 20.5 — Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)

Ashleigh Barty Background and Overview

Ashleigh Barty has a chance to become the first woman from Australia to win the country’s marquee sporting event since Christine O’Neil in 1978. While Barty has reached the final four in Melbourne once before, she failed to get past eventual champion Sofia Kenin, dropping two highly competitive sets in defeat. Barty has remained atop the world rankings since September of 2019 despite only winning one Grand Slam during that span. She has piled up 14 career titles.

A win in Melbourne would also make Barty a champion of three Grand Slam tournaments. She previously won the 2019 French Open and 2021 Wimbledon. The stark difference in playing surfaces at those two majors suffices as a true nod to her versatility. The 25-year-old is far from the tallest, longest, or strongest player on the WTA Tour.

What Barty lacks in physical attributes, she makes up for in hustle and grit. She can play well on any court surface, including the Aussie Open’s more absorbing hard courts.

Madison Keys Background and Overview

One of the two American women to reach this year’s Australian Open semis, Madison Keys is seeking her first career Grand Slam title. This will mark her second appearance in the Aussie Open final four, with the previous one coming back in 2015. Keys has been relatively quiet on the WTA Tour in recent years after climbing as high as No. 7 in the world rankings in 2016.

The 26-year-old from Illinois ranked 51st coming into the year’s first major and was not seeded in the Aussie Open draw. She has won six previous titles in her professional career and ran through a gauntlet of impressive players to make the semifinals.

At 5’10”, Keys certainly has a decisive height advantage over the 5’5″ Barty. Her power also stands out. She prefers to play on hard courts and reached her only Grand Slam final to date on the hard surface at the U.S. Open. However, Keys has achieved success on all three surfaces. She plays aggressively from the baseline and is rarely drawn into the net during a point. Unfortunately, her powerful game also comes with the drawback of committing unforced errors. 

Match Prediction

Has Keys’ tough road through the draw worn her down or brought out her best? The answer is probably a little bit of both. The American will certainly need to have her best ready for Barty on Thursday. Not only has the world No. 1 not dropped a single set in her five matches thus far, but she has only lost 17 games in total.

Barty routed 21-seed Jessica Pegula, 6-2, 6-0, in the quarterfinals. One has to believe her scrappy, versatile playing style could present a challenge to Keys’ power. While the home crowd in Melbourne Park will be firmly on her side, perhaps the toughest obstacle Barty will have to face is the magnitude of the moment. Carrying the hopes and anticipation of an entire nation on your shoulders is never easy. In Barty, Australians believe they have the woman set to end the country’s extended drought in its own tournament. 

Barty’s maturity and ability to handle that pressure have improved greatly from as recently as her first Aussie Open semifinal appearance two years ago. While she should get the job done, Keys’ impressive run suggests she can push the total games played over the low total.

Best Bet: Over 20.5 Total Games (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

(7) Iga Swiatek vs. (27) Danielle Collins

Moneyline: Swiatek: (-150) | Collins: (+120)
Games Spread: Swiatek: -1.5 (-120) | Collins: +1.5 (+100)
Total Games: 22.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Iga Swiatek Background and Overview

In many ways, it’s hard to fathom that Iga Swiatek is already a Grand Slam champion at the age of 20. The Polish star captured the French Open title in 2020 and is proving she has plenty more success on the horizon. This final four appearance at the Australian Open marks only the second time she has reached the semifinals at a major in her young career. Swiatek did, however, extend her stay to the fourth round at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open last year. She has three career singles titles and entered the Aussie Open ranked No. 8 in the world.

As one might imagine given the various results listed above, Swiatek’s playing style suits any and all court surfaces. Her aggressive approach focuses heavily on playing offense; Swiatek is at her best when dictating a volley and forcing her opponents to react. Of course, she can play defense from time to time, and she displayed as much in her match point win in the quarterfinals. The downside to Swiatek’s aggressive style is her propensity to make many unforced errors, a common theme in her quarterfinal match.

Danielle Collins Background and Overview

Joining Keys in representing the United States is 28-year-old Danielle Collins. This marks her second trip to the final four at a Grand Slam, with the first one also coming at Melbourne Park in 2019. Collins forced eventual runner-up Petra Kvitova to a first-set tiebreak in their semifinal match that year before getting shut out in the second set. Besides that run, her next best showing at a major was her quarterfinals appearance at the 2020 French Open.

Collins only turned pro in 2016 and has won two titles over her brief career thus far. She entered the Aussie Open ranked No. 30 in the world and was seeded 27th in the tournament draw.

One could argue Swiatek’s aggressive playing style pales in comparison to that of Collins. The Univerisity of Virginia alum is among the hardest hitters on the WTA Tour today. She combines a powerful serve with strong groundstrokes and a fearless attitude. Her strong volleying skills enable her to strike for winning shots from anywhere on the court. That said, much like her semifinals opponent, Collins is prone to a high number of unforced errors due to her assertive tendencies.

Match Prediction

Unlike the other women’s semifinal match, there is not a true height discrepancy between these two women. The 5’10” Collins will have all of a one-inch advantage over Swiatek. Given the uber-aggressive style of both women, this match could come down to who plays a cleaner game and commits fewer unforced errors. 

Another key wrinkle bettors should consider when handicapping this second semifinal is that Swiatek and Collins just played their respective quarterfinal matches yesterday. Thus, both women are looking at little more than a 24-hour turnaround coming into this semifinal match. While Collins needed a full three sets to get through the third and fourth rounds, she got past Alize Cornet quite comfortably yesterday. The opposite played out for Swiatek, as she outlasted Kaia Kanepi in a three-setter that exceeded three hours.

While Swiatek has the experience factor of having won a Grand Slam title once before, fatigue figures to play a considerable role for the Polish player in this match. Swiatek was also visibly dealing with nerves in yesterday’s quarterfinal.

The plus-money price on Collins seems like a solid bet to make given how yesterday’s matches played out for each woman. Note that Collins has also been in her fair share of big matches, albeit at the amateur level. She won the NCAA singles title in both her sophomore and senior seasons at Virginia. 

Best Bet: Danielle Collins ML (+120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.