The weekend is chock full of XFL action. The contests are split down the middle, with two on Saturday and two concluding the week on Sunday. St. Louis hosts the Renegades at 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, and the Defenders welcome the Vipers for the weekend’s final game at 7:00 p.m. ET.
How should gamblers attack these two contests? The last contests of Week 4 are analyzed below and followed by my favorite bet for Sunday’s games.
XFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (2023)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Battlehawks -4.0 Points (-110) vs. Arlington Renegades
The Battlehawks are playing their first home game of the 2023 season. The juices should flow in front of the home crowd in a battle of 2-1 teams. The home-field advantage has been kind to teams this year. Clubs have gone 7-5 in home games, outscoring the visitors 243-230. Yet, the overall record doesn’t provide the perfect context. The winless Vipers and winless Guardians have contributed three losses to the ledger.
Additionally, St. Louis has been the more impressive of the two-win teams in this matchup. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) has graded the Battlehawks as the best passing team. They’ve wisely leaned on NFL veteran A.J. McCarron, attempting 104 passes versus only 58 rushes. The hosts have the most impressive wins, too. St. Louis beat the Brahmas in Week 1, turned around, and won a road tilt against the high-flying Sea Dragons in Week 2. Their only loss was a six-point loss to undefeated DC.
Meanwhile, Arlington’s two wins have come by a combined three points at home against winless Vegas in Week 1 and winless Orlando in Week 3. Yikes. They escaped by the skin of their teeth against the laughingstocks of the XFL. They were trounced by nine points in their only road game of the young season against the undefeated Roughnecks.
Arlington has the second-fewest pass attempts (77), fewest yards per pass attempt (4.7) and the second-lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) passing grade. Sadly, a quarterback switch to Kyle Sloter didn’t cure what ailed their passing attack last week. Their rushing attack is pitiful, as well. Arlington has the fourth-most rushing attempts (77) but the fewest yards per carry (2.5). No other team has averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry, with the second-lowest mark checking in at 3.2.
Finally, Arlington’s defensive strength is defending the run. PFF grades them as the best run defense. However, their strength won’t help them much against St. Louis’s pass-first attack. As a result, the Battlehawks should win and might cover the 4.0-point spread. Yet, a parlay combining a bet from this contest and one from the next game is my preferred approach to betting Sunday’s games.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.