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Best Bets for the Genesis Invitational (PGA Betting)

by February 11, 2020

Nick Taylor (80/1) became the first-ever Canadian to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. Taylor was dominant from start to finish. He was the first-round leader after shooting a 63 to start his week. Six-time winner of the event, Phil Mickelson (28/1), was in contention until a poor final round. We saw some terrible scores posted on Sunday due to windy conditions, but Taylor persevered for his second career PGA title.

The PGA Tour will head to Los Angeles, California for the annual Genesis Invitational. This week features an extremely stacked field. Plenty of big names headline the event and it’s setting up to be an exciting tournament. Atop the betting board is Rory McIlroy (+750), followed by Justin Thomas (+900), Jon Rahm (+1000),  and Dustin Johnson (+1500). Brooks Koepka (+2600) will be making his 2020 PGA Tour debut after recovering from a knee injury.

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Course Preview
Riviera Country Club is a longer golf course measured at 7,322 yards. Length off the tee and accuracy with long irons will be crucial to posting a good score this week. There are seven Par 4s that measure between 450-500 yards. Efficiency on holes with the length will be a key stat to look at when considering the best bets this week. The greens will be played on POA grass and the track will play as a Par 71. Fairways are difficult to hit here and the Greens in Regulation numbers also are below Tour average.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (175-200yards)
  • Driving Distance
  • Course History
  • Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
  • Performance on Poa Annua Greens

Best Bets to Win

Rory McIlroy (+750 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
When McIlroy is on, there is perhaps no one better in golf. The reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year got off to a rough start at the Genesis Invitational last season. In rainy, windy conditions, McIlroy shot a one-over 72 but followed it up the next day with an eight-under 63. He cruised to a fourth-place finish, and if not for that poorly played opening round, McIlroy would have been in a much better position to win.

McIlroy is second in driving distance and ranks first in strokes gained on approaches within 175-200 yards. Golfers will see plenty of approach shots in this range. Last year, he led the PGA in Par 4 efficiency between 450-500 yards. He is checking all the boxes this week and I expect him to be contention come Sunday.

Bubba Watson  (+2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is the time of the season where Bubba tends to heat up. He is coming off of an impressive T3 showing at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and now goes to a course where he has had tons of success. Bubba is a three-time winner of the Genesis Invitational. In his last five outings here, he has two first-place finishes, a 14th, and a 15th. This is the type of course that plays to Bubba’s strengths.

Bubba is third in the field in strokes gained: 0ff-the-tee, sixth in driving distance, and is great with his long irons. He is tied for third this year in Par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards. His recent form has been a key indicator he is ready to win again. Bubba has two straight top-10 showings and goes to a course he has plenty of confidence at.

Carlos Ortiz to place in the top 10 (+1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
In his last three outings at the Genesis Invitational, Ortiz has finished 26th, 20th, and 9th (last year). He has had a really solid start to his 2019/20 PGA season. In only 10 events, Ortiz has three top-10s and has only missed the cut twice. He averages over 302 yards off the tee, and sneakily ranks 26th on Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Expect Ortiz to continue his success at Riveria this week.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.