Patrick Reed (45/1) won his eighth career PGA Tour title at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week. He was able to birdie three of his final four holes to edge out Bryson DeChambeau by a stroke. Reed was masterful with the putter all week, gaining a ridiculous 11.82 strokes on the greens. Despite being a polarizing figure in the golf world, Reed already has four top-10 finishes on the season.
The PGA Tour will now head to South Florida for the annual Honda Classic. We will be back to a normal-sized field with 144 golfers participating and the top-65 with ties making the weekend. This will not be a particularly strong field, as many golfers will be taking the week off after a couple of big tournaments. Atop the betting board is Tommy Fleetwood (+1100), Brooks Koepka (+1300), Rickie Fowler (+1500), and Louis Oosthuizen (+2000).
Golfers will be teeing it up at PGA National Golf Club, National Course, in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This course usually plays as one of the most difficult on Tour. It is a Par 70 track that measures at 7,140 yards long. Many factors contribute to the difficult scoring conditions at PGA National Golf Club. For one, the wind is usually very challenging for the golfers. Adding to the trouble are the numerous water hazards and sand traps that come into play. The cut line has been +1 or higher in each of the last six events. Golfers will be making the switch to Bermuda greens after a couple of weeks on Poa.
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Bogey Avoidance
- Performance on Bermuda Greens
Best Bets to Win
Brooks Koepka (+1300 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Runner-up at this event last year, Koepka is a proven winner of difficult golf courses and will be returning to his home state of Florida after a decent showing at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Koepka grew up putting on Bermuda surfaces and is most more comfortable on these greens. This course is said to almost play as challenging as a Major tournament. Anytime we can back Koepka at over +1000 odds, we will take it.
Despite this being Koepka’s second start of the season, he showed us enough at the Genesis Invitational. He was locked in with his irons and showed off his elite distance off the tee. Koepka should be able to take advantage of the two Par 5s and avoid the big numbers this week. He is top-10 in the field in strokes gained: approach, tee-to-green, bogey avoidance, and birdie-or-better.
Billy Horschel (with top 5 each/way) (+3500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Horschel has some elite course history at this event and is in great form. In the last five years at the Honda Classic, Horschel has a fourth-place a finish, and eighth, and a 16th (last year). He is the perfect “grind-it-out” golfer who is patient and performs admirably on Bermuda Greens.
What gets me even more excited about Horschel’s chances this week was how he played at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Horschel finished second in strokes gained:off-the-tee last week, en-route to a T9 showing. In his final round, he cruised to a six-under 65 to catapult him up the leaderboard. Things are pointing to a big week for Horschel in Florida.
Lee Westwood to place in the top 10 (+700 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Westwood heads into Florida in the midst of some excellent golf. The Englishman won last month in Abu Dhabi and played well at the WGC-Mexico Championship last week (T22). Second in the field in scrambling, third in strokes gained: putting, and top-15 in driving accuracy makes Westwood a strong contender to perform well this week. According to datagolf.org, Westwood also has the fourth-best true strokes gained measured at this course in 24 times out.