It was an exciting finish last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, as Sebastian Munoz birdied the final hole of his day to force a playoff with Sungjae Im. Munoz was able to win it on the first playoff hole to claim his first-ever PGA Tour victory. Munoz was 66/1 in most books prior to the event, and this was a huge breakthrough for the young Colombian. Sungjae Im was someone who I have tipped several times, and this was the closest he has ever been to his first win.
The PGA Tour will now head to Napa, California for the Safeway Open. This week, we will see a much stronger field with the likes of Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott participating. There is still plenty of value down the betting board this week. I will focus on recent form and course history when selecting my best bets this week. Kevin Tway will look to defend his title after winning his first-ever PGA Tour event here last year.
This tournament will be played at the Silverado Resort and Spa, located in Napa Valley, California. The north course is a par 72, 7,203 yard-long track that features Poa Annua greens. Though it is a relatively short course, the fairways are tree-lined, and there are plenty of doglegs. Golfers will have to plot their way around the course appropriately to give themselves the best angle into the greens. It is a very scorable course, as it recorded the 10th most birdies out of any course last year on the Tour.
Precision off the tee will be crucial this week, so golfers with elite ball-striking numbers will be in play here. Driving accuracy will be needed here to avoid bogeys, but the rough is not playing too penal, so good scramblers could get away with errant tee shots. Par-5 scoring will be a key stat, as the course features four of them. Since there are plenty of birdie opportunities here, the stat “birdie-or-better” will be taken into account. As always, in-form golfers who are popping in “strokes gained: approach” will get a bump.
- Strokes gained: ball striking
- Driving accuracy
- Par 5 scoring
- Strokes gained: approach
- Course history
Best Bets to Win
Byeong Hun An (+3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
An has always been known for his elite ball-striking ability. The problem he usually has is with the putter, as he ranked 182nd in strokes gained: putting last year. Lately, he has really turned things around. In his last eight events of 2018-19, An had four top-20 finishes. This was in part to his improved performance on the greens.
Last week, he continued to show that he has become a better putter with a third-place finish at the Sanderson Farms Championship. An gained an average of 1.04 strokes from putting on the field. He was also seventh in strokes gained: tee-t0-green, and this shows that all aspects of his game are dialed-in at the moment. I like this number for an in-form golfer who has figured things out with the putter.
Kevin Streelman (+4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Streelman is another golfer who had an impressive showing at the Sanderson Farms Championship last week. He finished tied for fourth and shot a sensational eight-under in his last round on the par 72 course. He should be able to feed off of this momentum coming into this week. This course suits up very well for his accuracy off the tee, as Streelman finished T-12 in strokes gained: ball-striking last year.
In his last two outings at this event, Streelman has finished 25th (2018) and 13th (2017). He is not the longest off the tee, but he is one of the most accurate. He should be able to find plenty of fairways and set himself up for good approaches. Ranking 15th in Greens-In-Regulation percentage last year, Streelman is a safe bet to see plenty of birdie opportunities this week.