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Best Bets for the WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA Betting)

by February 18, 2020

Another Australian was victorious this past week on the PGA Tour. Adam Scott (33/1) claimed his first-ever win at the Genesis Invitational. In his first start of 2020, Scott showed off his elite ball-striking skills to climb his way to a two-stroke win at Riviera Country Club. It was a challenging test of golf for many this week, and the cream rose to the top. Elite golfers such as Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Bryson DeChambeau were all in contention on Sunday.

The PGA Tour will now head to Mexico City for the WGC-Mexico Championship. World Golf Championships (WGC’s) are played four times each PGA season, and they have comparable prize money to the major championships. Just like last week, we will see another stacked field teeing it up. The only difference is it will be much smaller, as there are 70 players and no cut. Atop the betting board is Rory McIlroy (+600), Dustin Johnson (+800), Jon Rahm (+1000) and Justin Thomas (+1000). Dustin Johnson has the best course history with three wins in his last five times out here.

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Course Preview
This event will be played at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City, Mexico. While measuring at 7,330 yards, it will not play nearly this long. The course is located at over 7,600 above sea level, so the course will play closer to around 6,800 yards. Golfers will naturally gain more distance off the tee due to the thin air.  Fairways here are tree-lined and much more narrow than the Tour average. Accuracy off the tee is important, along with the ability to putt on these speedy Poa greens.

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach (125-150 yards)
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Course History
  • Par 4 Scoring

Best Bets to Win

Dustin Johnson (+800 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dustin Johnson has the best course history here, and it’s not very close. In his last five outings at this event, Johnson has three first-place finishes, a 7th place, and a 14th place showing. He is coming off a solid T10 performance at the Genesis Invitational last week and finished second at the Saudi International in early February.

In his win at the event last season, DJ led the entire field in strokes gained: ball-striking and strokes gained: putting. Recently, it’s his putting that has been holding him back. If he can gain some confidence back at a place he knows very well, there is no reason to believe he can’t get hot with the flat stick.

Sergio Garcia (with top 5 each/way) (+5000 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Garcia has four consecutive top-15 performances at this event, including a sixth-place finish last year.  This is a great number for Garcia, who has strong recent form and is a course horse. He is excellent with his short irons, ranking six in strokes gained: approach between 125-150 yards.

Last week, Garcia turned in a solid T37 showing at the Genesis Invitational. He finished tenth in strokes gained: tee-to-green, but was held back by a cold putter. I expect him to perform much better on the greens this week. He has gained over three strokes with his putting in two consecutive years at this event.

Abraham Ancer to place in the top 5 (+1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another value bet I like this week involves Abraham Ancer finding success in his home country. The Mexican is playing some great golf this season. Ancer has three top-10 finishes in just nine events this season: a second-place finish at the American Express in January, a T8 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in November, and a T4 at the last WGC the same month.

Ancer tends to thrive on shorter courses that help negate his lack of off the tee prowess. Tied for first in the field in Par 4 scoring, Ancer can rely on his elite approach game to lead the way. He is second in driving accuracy and should have a big advantage hitting these narrow fairways.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.