Follow me on Twitter for more information and data @FirstBasketMan.
Top Plays: 9 of 38 (23.7%, +39.5u) *considering 1u risk for each bet* / **Value Plays become Top Plays if Top Play is announced out**
Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS @ MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - NBA ON TNT @ 7:30 EST
This will be the 3rd matchup of the year between the Pelicans and Grizzlies, with the Pelicans having scored 1st in both matchups. This will be the 3rd matchup of the year between Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas, with each of them winning the tip once. Steven Adams scored both 1st team baskets for the Grizzlies, and Valanciunas and D. Graham scored 1st game baskets for the Pelicans.
I like Adams to win the tip here tonight. He's won 79% of his tips at home, with the Grizzlies scoring 1st in 62% of those. Valanciunas is no sham on the road, though, winning 54% of his tips. Knowing that the Pels have scored 1st already in the 2 matchups, I'll be playing both teams.
Expecting Memphis to get the 1st look, I'll be playing JA Morant +650 and Desmond Bane +1000. In the last 8 games that Memphis took the 1st attempt, Morant or Bane took a 1st attempt in 6 of them. In addition to that, a Point Guard cashes 1st basket in 14% of matchups against the Pels, which is the 2nd highest position to score 1st against them.
Given that the Pelicans could get a look, I think there's too much value on Valanciunas and Ingram not to play them. In the Pelicans’ last 11 games, Ingram and Valanciunas have scored 1st team basket in 10 of them!
Top Plays: JA Morant +650 (1st Basket), Jonas Valanciunas +650 (1st Basket)
Value Plays: Brandon Ingram +700 (1st FG), Desmond Bane +1000 (1st FG)
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - NBA on TNT @ 10:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Clippers and Warriors, with the Warriors having scored 1st basket in 2 of the 3 previous. Surprisingly, Kevon Looney (Tip Win 31%) has won all 3 tips this year vs. Zubac (Tip Win 32%). I have a feeling that Zubac wins the tip tonight and Looney doesn't move to 4-0. Looney has lost his last 8 tips at home, and has lost 5 of 6 since the All-Star Break.
I like the value of Zubac at +850. He's scored LAC 1st team basket in 5 of their L8. In addition to that, the Warriors’ worst position to defend against is the Center. In the last 7 games that the Clippers took an attempt at 1st basket, Zubac or Morris Sr. took an attempt in all 7. For this reason, I'll be playing these 2 as top plays.
If the Warriors get a look, I like the value of Looney +1000 & Payton II +1200. In the last 11 games, Looney has scored as many 1st team baskets as Wiggins, and Payton II has scored more than Klay Thompson.
Top Plays: Ivica Zubac +850 (1st Basket), Marcus Morris Sr. +550 (1st FG)
Value Plays: Kevon Looney +1000 (1st FG), Gary Payton II +1200 (1st Basket)
Bet $10 on Any NBA Game, Win $200 if Either Team Hits a Three-Pointer >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.
FirstBasketMan is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more, check out his archive and follow him for the latest First Basket Prop Bets advice @FirstBasketMan.