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Best NFL Bets Against the Spread for Conference Championships (2019)

by January 16, 2019

This one’s for all the marbles!

Okay, so that’s not really true at all. There are two games for crying out loud. The marbles won’t be metaphorically won until February 3rd in Atlanta.

This is my last Best Bets article of the year, however. So, you could say this our Super Bowl.

Thank you for taking the time out of your busy schedule to check out our new BettingPros website and my work this season. On behalf of myself and everyone at BettingPros, we thoroughly appreciate it. We also hope that you have enjoyed what you have seen and will continue to come back throughout the NFL offseason and to check out other sports. From the bottom of our hearts, thank you.

Let’s not get too sentimental, though, because we’ve got one hell of a Conference Championship Sunday upcoming. The four teams remaining were the four best teams the entirety of the NFL season. I feel confident in both of my picks, but both of these matchups have the makeup to be historically great games. The star power alone is enough to make them so.

Consider all of the storylines at play. In no particular order, Sean McVay is becoming the next coaching star. Drew Brees could further his legacy as one of the better quarterbacks of all time. Patrick Mahomes could officially take the throne as the best player in the league. And Tom Brady could squash that last potential headline and prove he truly isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

If nothing else, buckle up and enjoy the ride, folks.

Let’s go get all the marbles.

Here are your best bets for Conference Championship Sunday.

Los Angeles Rams @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5): Sunday – 3:05 PM ET (FOX)

Drew Brees is 7-0 with the Saints at home in the playoffs. The man has never lost a playoff game in the Superdome.

Very similar to how I’m not betting against Tom Brady until he (or someone else) proves me wrong, I’m not going against Brees in a home playoff game until he loses. Not to mention, Michael Thomas was the best player on the field in the Saints divisional win last weekend.

The C.J. Anderson story has been a great one for the Rams. But seriously, I feel confident riding one of the best statistical quarterbacks of all time who currently has better weapons at his disposal in a place where he’s never lost a playoff game.

To top it off, the Saints can also say, “been there, done that.” Not that a Week 9 regular season matchup is a tell-all, but the Saints did hand the undefeated Rams their first loss of the year. The Saints scored at will and knocked off the Rams by 10.

Whether a single one of these factors particularly sticks out or not, every sign points to the Saints. Give me Drew Brees to go to 8-0 in the postseason at home and cover the 3.5-point spread.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs: Sunday – 6:40 PM ET (CBS)

We’ve heard it all this week: The passing of the torch, Andy Reid’s time, Tom Brady’s symbolic finale.

You know what has happened nearly every single time Tom Brady has been doubted in his career? Well, you don’t even need an answer.

The Patriots have been unbelievable over the past 15 years at creating their own motivation. It’s something Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have done better than maybe anyone else in the history of sports. This week, the motivation has been handed to them on a silver platter. And trust me, they’re going to eat it up.

As far as on-field elements go, New England is coming into form at the perfect time. These pieces might seem trivial, but Gronk, while a shell of his former self, is as healthy as he’s been in weeks. Rex Burkhead, who can be an integral part of the Patriots offense, is healthy. Finally, call me crazy, but Phillip Dorsett has settled in since Josh Gordon has left, and he’s been better. Dorsett has one drop on the season, along with a 76.2% catch rate. Gordon, on the other hand, had six drops in fewer games with only a 57.7% catch rate. Dorsett has become an essential part of the Patriots passing attack. New England has officially rounded into form.

We all know when the Patriots are at their best they’re nearly impossible to beat.

Expect Mahomes, Reid, and the rest of the Chiefs to put forth their best effort, but the Patriots have another run left in them. I’ll take the Patriots to cover, win, and squash all of the doubters into oblivion once more.

Alex Altmix is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

NFL, Picks