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Best Super Bowl LIV Longshot Bets

by January 28, 2020

The Super Bowl is one of the most unique sporting events in the world. It’s a game that captures the country as households everywhere will have their own versions of viewing parties. The halftime show will be scrutinized and dissected, and the best of the commercials will be talked about around the water cooler the next day. 

From a betting perspective, there is nothing like the Super Bowl. Throughout the NFL season, most money will get placed on the moneyline, against the spread, or on the over/under. But the Super Bowl is the only game across all of sports where you can gamble on the wackiest of things. For example, you can bet on the length of the national anthem, the first song the performer will play during the halftime show, or what color Gatorade the winning coach will get splashed with. Anything and everything is encouraged and socially accepted, including the millions of dollars likely to be bet on the coin toss.

With the hundreds of varieties of new bets available for the Super Bowl comes many that return great odds. In this article, we will focus on the best longshot bets that have a chance of paying out. Keep in mind that these bets are considered longshots for a reason. The good news is, if one wagers the same amount of units on each of these bets, they would at minimum break even if just one hit.

Here are the best Super Bowl Longshot Bets (odds courtesy of FanDuel).

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Any Quarterback To Pass For 400+ Yards (Yes: +500)
If you take this bet, you’re hoping that the Chiefs let Patrick Mahomes air it out all game. Mahomes threw for 400-plus yards twice in 16 games this season. Two big things are what makes this a longshot bet. First, the 49ers defense led the league in the regular season with just 169.2 passing yards per game allowed. Second, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted just 27 passes in San Francisco’s first two playoff games combined. If Garoppolo were to achieve this feat, it would likely mean that the 49ers got down big early and had to abandon the run. 

However, both Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are creative play-callers, and they should surprise us with their gameplans. Also, the over/under for the game is 54.5. As long as points get scored, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for one of these quarterbacks to go off.  

Either Team to Score 2 Unanswered Times (NO: +2300)
For this bet to hit, both teams would have to score back-and-forth for the entire game. For example, this bet would lose if the Chiefs scored once — regardless of whether it’s a touchdown or a field goal — and then scored again before the 49ers could return fire. In a game that figures to be higher scoring, the odds for neither team scoring twice unanswered are significantly lowered. However, the game should be close, since the spread is only 1.5 points. If it plays out as a tight battle, one could envision a game with alternating scoring throughout. At +2300 odds, there are not going to be many more things more likely to happen than this. 

Will There Be a Safety During the Game? (Yes: +900)
There are many people out there who take this bet every year. Betting on a safety to occur is one of the most common longshot bets. The crazy thing is, it has actually happened quite a bit recently. In total, there have been nine Super Bowls with a safety. However, four of them have happened since 2009. In Super Bowl XLVIII, the Seahawks jumped out to a 2-0 lead over the Broncos after a safety on the game’s first snap. We have seen some bizarre reasons for safeties in Super Bowls. From traditional quarterback sacks, muffed snaps, intentional grounding penalties in the endzone, or teams intentionally taking safeties at the end of a game to run out the clock, we have seen it all. With as fierce of a pass rush as the 49ers possess, we may get our tenth Super Bowl with a safety.

Will the Game be Decided by Exactly 3 Points (Yes: +500)
Just six Super Bowls have been decided by exactly three points. The last one came back in 2013’s Super Bowl XLVII when the Ravens beat the 49ers 34-31. Is there an omen that it will happen to the 49ers once again? This is a bet with decent odds for any bettors who think the game will be close. The best part is that since this is not an against the spread bet, the bet cashes no matter which team wins by three points. For those who are a little more adventurous or are thinking along the same lines as this bet, one would get +800 odds if the game is decided by exactly seven points.  

Alternate Spread (49ers -16.5: +650, Chiefs -16.5 +500)
Alternate spreads are certainly not unique to Super Bowls, as they are offered for every game in the regular season. These odds on bigger spreads appeal to bettors who believe the game will not be as close as the oddsmakers predict. The 49ers have won each of their playoff games by 17 points. Is it possible for them to cover a 16.5 point spread against the Chiefs? Kansas City has found themselves in big holes early in each of their playoff games. Perhaps the 49ers are more apt to put the Chiefs away if they got up big behind their power running game and a stingy defense.

On the flip side, one could envision a scenario where the Chiefs get up big early. The 49ers would then have to ask Jimmy Garoppolo to throw the ball more than he has this postseason. Bettors would bank on the fact that there is a snowball effect and that the 49ers’ problems would get compounded. One can find a number of different alternate spreads, so find the one that is most comfortable for you. If you are one who thinks one team is far superior to the other, there are much better odds available than simply betting the game spread.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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