While baseball statistics are invaluable to MLB bettors, some of the most important (and oft-overlooked) metrics for increasing betting success reside outside the actual game. Here are three such MLB betting tips to take your baseball handicapping to the next level.
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MLB Betting Tips: 3 Hidden Factors to Improve Your Picks
Park Factor
The varying dimensions of ballparks must be considered when handicapping baseball games. The Park Factor metric, developed by ESPN, compares a team’s offensive stats in games played at their home park to those in road games. While it offers data for home runs, hits, walks, and more, the key category to focus on is runs scored. A run rate greater than 1.000 signifies a hitter's ballpark, while a rate below the 1.000 threshold denotes a pitcher's park. By averaging park factors across multiple seasons, bettors can build a larger dataset to track which ballparks favor hitters and pitchers over time.
Of course, the sportsbooks aren't going to be beaten easily, and many have adjusted lines and totals for parks known to heavily cede an advantage to either the hitter or pitcher. But while a Coors Field or Marlins Park may have the obvious park factor baked into the line, other stadiums such as Chase Field, which has actually been one of the most hitter-friendly parks over the last several seasons, might afford bettors an edge. The Park Factor metric can also be used to disprove general claims about a ballpark. A stadium generally considered a hitter’s paradise may play differently in a given season. While there is more than just the park that goes into the stat itself (consider the offenses and pitching staffs), it certainly offers bettors a basis on which parks do trend one way or the other consistently and can help pick out anomalies to the norm.
Umpires
Umpires typically won't be the first thing you consider when handicapping the MLB, but the impact that they can have is quantifiable. Umpires are of particular interest when they are on assignment behind the plate, calling balls and strikes, due to the size of their respective strike zones. Those with larger, more pitcher-friendly zones will be more apt to call batters out on strikes, thus correlating with the UNDER on a totals wager. In contrast, umpires with tighter strike zones will lead to more hittable pitches, walks, baserunners, and scoring chances throughout a game, translating to a higher probability of the game total going OVER. Tracking the average number of total runs, walks, and strikeouts is all worthwhile when incorporating umpires into your MLB handicapping. While ABS has corrected some of this, it can still have an impact.
Weather and Wind
The weather forecast for a particular game should be especially noted when betting the total. The most important weather factor to note is the wind, in terms of both its speed and direction. When the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more, the UNDER on game totals cashes roughly 56% of the time. In contrast, when the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH or more, the OVER hits about 53% of the time.
After discussing ballpark factors and their importance in MLB handicapping above, it should be noted that wind speed, direction, and other weather factors can greatly diminish the park factors that favor hitters or pitchers in a given game. To ensure you have the best chance of making an educated bet, treat each game for what it is: a single unique game. Considering park factors and the forecast together when handicapping games is the best strategy for success.