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Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 11 (2021)

by November 11, 2021
Bailey Zappe

Check out my best bets for Week 11 of the college football season!

  • Week 10 Record: 3-7
  • Season Record: 52-47-1

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Western Kentucky @ Rice –  OVER 62.5

I wanted to take WKU ATS in this game at first glance but I just can’t bring myself to trust their defense at all.  We know that WKU is going to score, they are averaging 41.3 PPG (7th in the country) behind their incredible passing game which is 1st in the country (415 YPG).  The question here is will Rice score?  Since getting shutout by UTSA on October 16th the Owls have averaged 26 points a game against some bad defenses.  Rice beat UAB straight up 30-24 (very weird game, UAB had 10 penalties, 2 TOs and were replacing their starting QB), and then put up 24 on North Texas and Charlotte the following 2 weeks.  WKU’s defense has gotten a little better recently in the last month and held Old Dominion, FIU, Charlotte, and MTSU under their scoring average.  MTSU was the only offense ranked above 85th and they were playing without their starting QB.  With the Rice offense playing better and the #1 passing offense in this game, I think this is an easy over.  WKU has played only 2 games under 62.5 (FIU and Charlotte), they are the better team and I expect them to control the pace.  These teams combined are 12-6 playing to overs this year, WKU will get most of this and their defense will let Rice score 3 TDs to nail this over!

Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>

Georgia @ Tennessee – Under 56

Georgia has held their opponents to an average of  20.4 points below their current average points per game.  By that average Tennessee would score 18 points against Georgia, which would be the most points scored against Georgia this year.  Do we really think that Tennessee is going to put up the most points on the Georgia defense?  I don’t.  Georgia scores on average of 38.4 PPG this season which would put this game right in line to slightly go over but Georgia has played to the under in 6 of 9 games and they’ll control the pace of the game.  Georgia hasn’t played to an over since September 25th and their last 5 games have gone under.  In two of the games that have gone over for Georgia, they have got to the total themselves, 56-7 over UAB (44.5 total) and 62-0 over Vandy (54 total) which was the last game that went over for Georiga,  Georgia likes to sit on the ball in the 4th quarter also, Georgia has only scored 10 points twice in the 4th quarter and typically sit on it once they get the lead.  Georgia’s defense is one of the best I’ve ever seen and I’m going to rely on them to keep it rolling!

 UTEP (-0.5) @ North Texas

I feel like UTEP was overrated last week and after the loss to UTSA if feel like they are underrated this week.  UTEP is 6-3 with one of the easier schedules, the combined record of the 6 teams they have beat is 11-43, a 20.3 winning percentage.  North Texas has 3 wins and the team’s records combined are 6-21, a 22.2 winning percentage.  I like UTEP here because they play a little better defense, they rank in the top 50 in defensive scoring, passing, and rushing.  North Texas has a great rushing offense and ranks 11th in rushing offense, the two FBS teams they have beat rank 77th (Southern Miss) and 100th (Rice).  UTEP is ranked 21st in run defense so far and will be the best rushing defense that North Texas has played this season, in the other game that UNT played against a top 25 rushing defense they lost 40-6 (UAB).  North Texas top RB DeAndre Torrey played last week but left early in the 2nd quarter and didn’t come back and that was before North Texas had even scored.  All 3 of the losses for UTEP have come against teams that were double-digit favorites.  Neither of these teams are good but I think UTEP is clearly the superior team and they just have to win by 1 point, take the Miners!

Notre Dame (-5.5) @ Virginia AND Under 64.5

This one really comes down to the health of Brennan Armstrong.  The UVA QB went down in the game against BYU 2 weeks ago and we still aren’t sure if he’s going to play or not.  Coach Mendenhall said he wouldn’t announce who the starting QB would be and everyone will find out after kickoff.  I would think that IF Armstrong is ready to go he won’t be 100% and against Notre Dame that isn’t going to do your team any favors.  Notre Dame is starting to hit their stride, they have won 4 straight up and ATS.  I think Notre Dame is going to control the pace of this game.  UVA is bad on defense, 102nd in scoring, 95th in passing defense, and 122nd in rushing defense.  Notre Dame should be able to do whatever they want and with a banged-up Armstrong or backup QB, I don’t expect the Cavaliers to be clicking on all cylinders.  I have been burned picking for and against Notre Dame this year but I’m going back to it for some wins!

Other Bets I Like:

Washington State (+14) @ Oregon

NC State (+2.5) @ Wake Forest

UTSA vs Southern Miss – Over 54.5

Michigan (-1.5) @ Penn State

Oklahoma State (-13) vs TCU

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College Football, Picks