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Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 13 (2021)

by November 25, 2021
Zach Calzada

Check out my best bets for Week 13 of the college football season!

  • Week 12 Record: 6-4
  • Season Record: 63-55-2

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Arkansas (-14.5) vs Missouri
I know that I gambled against Missouri and lost last week but I did say that if Florida didn’t beat Missouri Mullen should be fired and he was.  This week is not about feeling at all it’s about the fact that Missouri can not stop the run.  Missouri is ranked 125th in the country against the run even after their defense held Florida to only 93 yards last week. In Missouri’s losses this season, they have given up an average of 304.8 rushing yards and only154.6 in wins.  Arkansas is the 13th ranked rushing offense in the nation averaging 222.3 yards per game and I expect them to be closer to 300 than the 150 and win this game.  Missouri’s average margin of loss is 22 points this season, it all adds up to Arkansas running away with this one!

Texas A&M (-6.5) @ LSU
LSU has been awful this season, this is their last shot to make a bowl game with Ed Orgeron but I think that Texas A&M is going to be too much for them to handle.  LSU is 2-5 since the start of October and the two teams they beat are ULM and the worst Florida team we’ve seen in a while. TAMU is 5-2 since October including the big win over Alabama.  Texas A&M QB Zach Calzada will be a big key, in the 6 wins since he took over as QB he has turned the ball over 3 times and in the 3 times in only 2 losses.  Texas A&M is allowing a 2nd best in the country 14.9 points per game, LSU is in the middle of the pack (74th – 27.1) in offensive PPG and has had issues running the ball which forces them to pass which they aren’t bad at ranking 40th.  However, Texas A&M has been great at rushing the passer with 33 sacks on the year and LSU is 110th in the nation with 33 sacks allowed.  I expect the Aggies defense to dominate this and Calzada to do enough on offense for them to dominate the Tigers and send Ed Oregeron out the door!

Clemson (-11.5) @ South Carolina AND Over 43.5
Clemson is having a bad year against the spread sitting at 3-8 but they are 3-1 in their last 4 with the loss being a game where they were favored by 41 and only won by 37 against UConn.  South Carolina is getting better for sure this year and have already qualified for a bowl game at 6-5.  The problem for South Carolina is that Clemson has woken up offensively in the last 4 games.  The Clemson offense has put up an average of 38 points per game in the last 4 and have not scored fewer than 30 in any game.  South Carolina is giving up an average of 35.2 points per game in their 5 losses this season and that includes 4 teams putting up at least 40 with Kentucky scoring 16.  Clemson is going to win this game as double-digit favorites and when South Carolina misses this year they have missed big.  I think this game is going to be a Clemson beat down and all we’re asking for is a little from South Carolina’s offense, score twice or maybe even once to get us to the total as well!

Notre Dame (-18.5) @ Stanford
Stanford had their BIG upset win over Oregon and have gone winless since then.  Stanford had the letdown week against ASU after the Oregon win, hung tough Washington State and Washington the two weeks following that losing by 3 and 7 but the last three weeks have been brutal for them.  The average November loss for Stanford is by 32 to Utah (52-7), Oregon State (35-14), and Cal (41-11).  Notre Dame is on a 6 game winning streak with an average margin of 22.6 PPG and a lot like Stanford their 3 November wins have been by an average of 36.  These teams are headed in different directions, Notre Dame has had 2 wins in a row of at least 25 behind the run game going over 200 yards and poor Stanford is 127th in the nation allowing 241.73 rushing yards per game.  To recap, 6 game losing streak vs 6 game winning streak, good rushing offense vs bad rushing defense, losing by 36 ppg and winning by 36 ppg.  Notre Dame wins this one in a walk if these trends stay the same and I don’t see any reason why they won’t.

Other Bets I Like:

  • Ole Miss (+2.5) @ Miss State
  • Iowa (-1.5) @ Nebraska
  • Miami (-21.5) @ Duke
  • NC State (-6) vs North Carolina
  • Nevada (-4) @ Colorado State

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