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Bogman’s Best College Football Bets for Week 7 (2021)

by October 14, 2021
Arkansas Razorbacks

Check out my best bets for Week 7 of the college football season!

  • Week 6 Record: 5-5
  • Season Record: 32-27-1

Check out all of our college football game previews and picks of the week >>

Auburn @ Arkansas Over 54

Didn’t we just see Arkansas play a game that went over 100 points?  Sure, Ole Miss is one of the best offenses in the country, and we can’t expect that level of shootout in this game but, we only need to get 54 here.  KJ Jefferson is the key for the Razorbacks, and he looked like he’s 100% healthy after throwing 35 times and running 20 times last Saturday.  He has thrown for 300 yards twice this season, and he works in tandem with RBs Trelon Smith and Raheim Sanders to spark the #10 rushing offense in the country.  Bo Nix has looked better for Auburn. Even in the Georgia game, he threw for over 200 yards which hadn’t been done by anyone else this season.  Bo Nix led Auburn to a comeback win after they were down early to LSU and has seemed to reign in the job.  Auburn is having a down year rushing, and they are still 34th in the country, and Arkansas is a ‘run first’ team averaging 32.3 PPG.  If these teams play to their average PPG (and both have played Georgia), the total would be 67.  I think this one is going to hit the over fast!

Purdue @ Iowa (-11.5)

I talked about this one on the podcast, and I’m bringing it here too.  Purdue has a pretty solid passing offense led by QB Aidan O’Connell and WR David Bell, they rank 10th in passing offense, but they are one dimensional as they are only 122nd in rushing yards.  Purdue has also had problems punching it in as they are 102nd in scoring (23.6 PPG).  The Boilermakers are going to face an Iowa defense that is 4th in scoring (13 PPG), 22nd in passing defense (183.7 YPG), and 10th against the run (not that it will matter), the real difference will be that Iowa picks the ball off A LOT. They have 16 INTs this year and will force Purdue into some bad looks, and I think they’ll come away with at least a couple of picks.  Iowa ranks in the 40s across all three offensive categories, so they aren’t dominant, but it isn’t hard to score when you have short fields and get turnovers.  I don’t know that Iowa is the 2nd best team in the country, but I think they are at least 2 TDs better than Purdue, and that’s all we’ll need on Saturday!

Rice @ UTSA (-18.5)

I LOVE this one.  We just saw UTSA QB Frank Harris open up this offense against WKU to the tune of 52 points, and I don’t see it slowing down against Rice.  Rice is 125th in scoring defense, allowing 38.6 PPG, 93rd against the pass, and 107th against the run.  UTSA is a run-first team for sure, but getting Frank Harris in a rhythm now will help them become more balanced down the road.  UTSA is a 6-0 team that should beat up a much weaker team in Rice, they are at home and coming off their best offensive performance of the year, and if these teams put up average scores, UTSA wins by 18 points (37.5-19.2).  Rice is better, but they aren’t ready to compete with UTSA. I have the Roadrunners by 3 TDs!

Nebraska (-4) @ Minnesota

I am genuinely surprised to be picking Nebraska after the horrible performance they opened the season in the loss to Illinois.  The Huskers are only 2-3 since that game, but they have played some stiff competition in their losses to Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Michigan, all of those losses coming by one score.  Minnesota has been up and down but very inconsistent since the opener where they played Ohio State tough. They barely beat Miami(Ohio), shut out Colorado, LOST TO BOWLING GREEN, and beat an excellent offensive Purdue team.  The Gophers also lost their 2nd starting RB for the season, with Treyson Potts going down last week.  Minnesota is 5th against the run this year, but outside of Ohio State, they have played only teams that rank 80 or lower in rushing yards.  I feel like Nebraska should beat up Minnesota with Adrian Martinez finally playing like he has been expected to. Still, this line gives us a little cushion if Minnesota decides to show up!

Michigan State (-4.5) @ Indiana

These two teams are going in opposite directions, MSU is 6-0, and they have only played close in one game against Nebraska that they won 23-20.  MSU is running the ball down team’s throats right now, 22nd in the country in rushing offense (217.7 YPG).  Indiana is decent against the run but did give up over 200 to Penn State last week, and MSU has Heisman candidate RB Kenneth Walker (4th best odds +1500).  Indiana QB Michael Penix left the game against Penn State last week and is questionable to play this week, so Jack Tuttle will likely start for the Hoosiers. He was 6/12 with 77 yards and an interception when he took over last week.  The one stat that looks horrible for MSU is that they are 124th in passing yards against so far but remember they have only played in 1 one-score game, so most teams have been passing to come back against them.  I think the Spartans win by two scores as they have in most games this year, so this 4.5 point line looks like an easy one to play.

Other Bets I Like:

  • WKU -12.5 @ Old Dominion
  • Kent State +6.5 @ Western Michigan
  • Kentucky @ Georgia,  Over 44.5
  • Liberty @ ULM,  Over 55.5
  • UCLA +2.5 @ Washington

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Scott Bogman is a featured writer for BettingPros. For more from Bogman, check out his archive and follow him @BogmanSports.

College Football, Picks