Game 4 of the NBA Finals should be an exciting one. Down 0-2, Milwaukee took advantage of playing at home and a poor shooting night from Devin Booker to convincingly win their first game of the series. Milwaukee will be looking to even the series tonight, and holding the Suns under 30 percent from deep for the second straight game could go a long way to achieving that goal.
1. Suns +4.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
After a beatdown in Game 3, the Phoenix Suns have flipped from five point favorites to -4.5 point underdogs. As mentioned above, the Suns loss coincided with an atrocious night from the field from Devin Booker. The Bucks should be favored at home, but a complete flip of the Game 3 line presents value. Tonight’s contest should be competitive and could truly go either way if Booker finds his shot. It would surprise absolutely no one if the Bucks tied the series tonight, but a win by six or more points would. The Suns are the value here due to the combined probability of either an outright win or cover being higher than the probability of a Bucks cover. Tap them for one unit.
2. Chris Paul Under 4.5 Rebounds | -160 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This prop has become significantly more popular after CP3’s zero rebound performance in Game 3. The juice here may be untenable for some, but the probability suggests that the odds should be north of -200, which means there is value here despite the high juice. Chris Paul has fallen under five rebounds in nine of his last 10 contests and is an excellent bet to do so once again in Game 4. Paul is actually a strong rebounder for a point guard who averaged 7.4 rebounds per game in the postseason just last season, but his recent play suggests the under is still a strong value here. Keep it to one unit. Whether that is return or wager is up to you and your risk averseness.
3. Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Threes Made | -167 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Connaughton has gotten hot from deep recently, draining eight threes in this series and at least two per game in each contest. He has done so while shooting .440 or better from deep in each of those contests and should be good for at least two deep balls tonight. This was actually a prop I sought out due to his recent play and the feeling that Vegas may not like his shot volume enough to push this number any higher. There is risk due to volume concerns, but his recent performances make the over the clear value.
NBA Prop Bets
- Bobby Portis Jr. Prop Bet Odds
- Devin Booker Prop Bet Odds
- Chris Paul Prop Bet Odds
- Jrue Holiday Prop Bet Odds
- P.J. Tucker Prop Bet Odds
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