The Buffalo Bills are the surprise of the NFL season and are off to their best start since 1993 at 6-2. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns have been one of the biggest disappointments. After all their offseason moves they became the darlings of bettors everywhere, but they are off to a 2-6 start and are probably just one loss away from their season being over.
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Browns -3; O/U 42.5. The total has dropped two full points.
- Current Line: Browns -2.5
- O/U: 40.5
- Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
- Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 18, 2016 – The Bills defeated the Browns 33-13 in Buffalo.
If you just looked at their records, this matchup seems like a huge mismatch and this line surely looks like a mistake from Vegas. The Bills are 6-2, off to their best start since 1993 and are right in the mix for not only the Wild Card spot but the AFC East. Rookie running back Devin Singletary is coming off the best game of his career, and Josh Allen continues to get the job done despite his accuracy issues.
The Browns, on the other hand, are 2-6 and are easily the most disappointing team of the 2019 season. They’ve lost four straight games, including a recent road loss to the Denver Broncos and quarterback Brandon Allen who was making the first start of his career. The offense is averaging just 19 points per game, despite having Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., and Jarvis Landry. This week they will get Kareem Hunt back, but how much of a difference will he really make for this team?
But while the Bills and Browns have opposite records, the play of their offenses has been very similar. The Bills are averaging 19.8 points, 351.9 total yards, and 129.4 rushing yards per game, while the Browns are averaging 19 points, 368.9 total yards, and 121 yards rushing per game. It’s pretty even across the board.
The difference has been in the defenses and in turnover differential. The Bills are allowing just 16.4 points per game, while the Browns are allowing 25.6. This is partially due to bad defense by the Browns, but again it can be traced back to the offense. The Bills have a turnover differential of -1. It’s not great, but it’s much better than the Browns’ margin which is -8, good for fifth-worst in the NFL.
- The Bills are 5-3 ATS this season.
- The Browns are 2-6 ATS this season.
- The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
- The total has gone under in all of Buffalo’s last five games on the road.
- The under has hit in six of Buffalo’s eight games this season.
- The over and under have both hit four times in Cleveland’s eight games this season.
Browns Total over 20.5 (-110)
This seems crazy, right? The Browns’ offense has been terrible, and the Bills’ defense has been great for most of the season. But Buffalo is starting to show some of their blemishes, and with Kareem Hunt coming back this week, the Browns will have a dual-threat unlike any other in the NFL. They should be able to wear down the Bills’ defense and put points on the board.
While their records indicate this should be a mismatch, it seems as though Vegas has it right thinking the Browns can beat the Bills this week. The Browns schedule has been very difficult this season with losses coming against the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, and 49ers, while the Bills have mostly beat up on the bottom portion of the league in the Bengals, Dolphins, Jets, Giants, and Redskins. Cleveland needs this one, and frankly, the Bills are faking it a bit this season.
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 10
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-14)
New York Giants at New York Jets (+2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)