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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Odds and Game Pick (2020)

by December 26, 2020
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

History was made in two different ways last week. The Buffalo Bills won their first division title since 1995. On the flip side, the New England Patriots will not play in the postseason for the first time in 11 years. It’s the fourth time since 2000 that New England won’t be in the playoffs.

Now, these two AFC East rivals collide at Gillette Stadium on Monday Night Football, and motivation will be a factor. With nothing to play for, will the Patriots show up in primetime? And while the Bills are still fighting to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, this could serve as a letdown spot given the emotional high of last week’s win over Denver.

The Bills are clearly the better team in this contest and deserve to be 7-point road favorites. But will they play like it Monday night? Let’s breakdown this primetime showdown.

Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for the Bills vs. Patriots >>

Details

  • Opening Line: Buffalo -4.5
  • Last meeting: November 1, 2020, Bills 24-21
-7
-107
o46
-110
-303
VIEW PICKS
+7
-114
u46
-110
+250

View consensus picks and matchup notes from top betting experts for the Bills vs. Patriots >>

Overview 

Full disclosure: the Patriots killed me last week. I gave out the Patriots as short road underdogs against the Dolphins and was feeling good after one half. Then, New England completely collapsed, turning a 6-0 lead at halftime into a 22-12 defeat.

It’s obvious that Cam Newton is finished. He never had great accuracy, but there are times when it looks like he’s not even sure where the football’s going anymore. As I wrote in my Pats-Dolphins preview, New England’s offense is predicated on the running game. And just like Miami, run defense has been Buffalo’s weakness.

While Buffalo has allowed 4.6 net yards per rush attempt, it’s been much better defending the run recently. Last week was the first time in three games Buffalo had given up more than 86 yards on the ground. Sean McDermott’s defense is getting better at the right time.

The Bills feel like a team that’s peaking just at the right time. In my mind, they present the biggest threat to Kansas City in the AFC. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and Buffalo’s offense remains one of the best in the league with Stefon Diggs on the outside. A healthy John Brown will make this passing game even more dangerous.

Buffalo is even getting more from its running game. The Bills have put up at least 104 rushing yards in three of its last four contests. Allen’s arm is still this team’s best shot to make it to the Super Bowl, but balance will be critical come playoff time.

Allen and the Bills should have no problems against a Patriots defense that lacks much talent. Making matters worse, this unit lost its best player, Stephon Gilmore, to a season-ending injury during last week’s loss. Bill Belichick has done everything he can schematically to keep this defense respectable, and it still hasn’t worked.

Trends 

  • The Bills have covered their last six games. The last game they didn’t cover was against New England on 11/1.
  • Bill Belichick is rarely a home underdog, but he’s 2-0 ATS in that spot this season.

Bottom Line 

This game feels like Buffalo or nothing to me, though I’d rather lay less than a touchdown. The Patriots are lifeless offensively and don’t have the horses on defense to keep up with Allen and Buffalo’s passing attack. It’s hard to discount Belichick, but I have a feeling the Patriots might quit on the season after last week’s collapse.

I think the best play is the under in this matchup. The Bills might be a little hungover from winning their first division title in 25 years. This feels like a game Buffalo will keep things close to the vest and just get out with a win.

The pick: Under 46, lean Bills -6.5 or better

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @RealMattBarbato.

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