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We’re on a bit of a roll now as we swept the board last weekend, pushing our Bundesliga picks to 5-1 so far. It’s likely just some early luck, so let’s not get too excited. Hopefully we can keep it up as we move on to Matchday 28.
It’s a quick turnaround this week, so make sure you’re tuning in early this week. While the first two weeks of games were on the weekends, we’ve got mid-week action coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s a look at our picks for the week.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt is one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga and that’s showed of late. Since getting back to business after the COVID-19 hiatus, they were pummeled 5-2 by Bayern Munich and 3-1 by Monchengladbach. They really weren’t in either of the games. Now they’ll take on SC Freiburg, who is currently seventh in the standings table.
You might be wondering why Frankfurt is favored here but they’ve actually been respectable at home. They are 6-3-4 at home – the sixth-best home mark in the Bundesliga – compared 2-1-10 on the road, which is the worst road mark. Freiburg is just an average team both home and away as they are ninth in both categories.
I’m looking at an over here as Frankfurt has given up 15 goals in its last four games overall and 18 times in it’s last five Bundesliga matchups. Frankfurt home games have averaged 3.6 goals per game this season. Freiburg is not a high-scoring team – just 19 goals in 14 road games – but Frankfurt should be welcomed here. I’m expecting an over.
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder is actually coming off a win over SC Freiburg but they’ve been pretty bad this season. Other than that win a tie versus Hertha on March 7th, they have lost six of their last eight. The scorelines haven’t been close either as they’ve lost by a combined score of 16-2 in those six games.
On the other hand, we have Monchengladbach, who are coming off a 3-1 loss to Leverkusen. They’re a respectable side, though, as they are fourth in the standings.
Monchengladbach is on the road here but home games have not been an advantage for Werder Bremen this season. They have just five points in 12 home games, which is the fewest in the Bundesliga. Their one home win is also the smallest number. Monchengladbach has three wins and a draw in their last four road games, and are 7-2-4 in away games this season, which is good for the fifth-best road mark.
I’m pretty comfortable laying -145 on the side here but -1 +170 is a little more tantalizing as I’m not expecting a close game.
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Schalke 04
Dusseldorf +165, Draw +230, Schalke +165 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
On the surface, it looks like we’ve got a bit of a mismatch here. Schalke is eighth in the Bundesliga table on 37 points while Dusseldorf is fighting to avoid relegation. They are 16th in the standings with just 24 points. However, there might be some value with the home team here.
Schalke is coming off a 3-0 loss to Augsburg, who had just three more points than Dusseldorf before that match. Schalke has actually been outscored 7-0 in their two games since returning from the hiatus and they’ve been outscored 21-2 in their last nine contests. They haven’t won a game since January 17th.
It’s hard to get excited about Dusseldorf as they’re pretty bad. However, they did have posted four straight draws and a win in their last five, which is pretty good for them.
I have a pretty good feeling that this ends in either a draw or a Dusseldorf win, so I’m going to bet Dusseldorf on the two-way line at DraftKings Sportsbook where it’s -109 both ways. I don’t have much confidence in Schalke these days.