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We got back on track a little bit mid-week as we produced a 2-1 result with our picks to improve to 12-9 on the year. We’re moving on to Matchday 33 with all of the games coming on Saturday. Let’s take a closer look at the action to see what might be some good plays.
RB Leipzig vs. Borussia Dortmund
Odds: RB Leipzig +125, Draw +260, Dortmund +200
This is one of the games of the week for Matchday 33. Both teams are fighting each other for the second spot on the table with Leipzig in third with 63 points and Dortmund in second with 66. It’s worth noting that both the teams have an equal goal difference of +45, though.
I can’t say I’ve been thrilled with Leipzig of late as they have had a number of surprising performances of late. Home games have been bizarrely challenging for them as they’re fresh off a 2-2 draw with Dusseldorf, who is currently 16th in the standings and has scored just 35 goals this season – the second-fewest in the Bundesliga. Their two home games before that, they tied Paderborn (dead-last in the standings) and Hertha (11th).
I’ll take a flier with Dortmund as a road dog here. You can get them at +116 on a two-way line (Draw No Bet), which is what I’ll do here.
FC Bayern Munich vs. SC Freiburg
Odds: Munich -380, Draw +500, Freiburg +800
Bayern Munich, the leading points table team and they’re up against the No. 8 team SC Freiburg on in this one. Bayern Munich is already the league champs and have been head and shoulders above everyone else this season with an incredible record of 24-4-4, they are leading the table. Their key player, Robert Lewandowski, is still looking to break some records (Thomas Müller’s 40-year record of highest goals in a season). Even so, it feels like the pedal hasn’t fully been to the metal the last couple of games as they won by one over Werder, Monchengladbach, and Eintracht in their last three contests.
On the other hand, SC Freiburg only managed to win once in their last 33 games against Munich, so I’m not expecting an upset. I’m looking more for an under. Bayern has only conceded 14 goals at home this season and while they’ve scored 50, I think they’re not going to be as aggressive now that the league title is sewn up.
Hertha Berlin vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Odds: Hertha +410, Draw +330, Leverkusen -165
This is a matchup of the No. 11 team in the table (Hertha Berlin) with the No. 4 (Bayer Leverkusen). Leverkusen was one of the teams we had in our most recent picks and they cashed for us. They are trying to maintain their spot in the Top 4 to qualify for the Champions League. Bayer’s Kai Havertz will be the key factor here as he has 10 goals to his name so far this season. The 21-year-old youngster is clearly on the rise and should be a big factor in the mid-field here.
Taking a look at Hertha Berlin, they have been some serious problems in their last few games. They’ve lost three in a row and one of their key players, Matheus Cunha, has missed three each of those contests. It doesn’t look like he’ll be available.
Hertha is at home here but they are just 5-3-8 at home this season – the fifth-worst home record – while Leverkusen is 10-2-4 on the road – the third-best road record. I’ll go with Leverkusen.