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We had a fairly productive start to our Bundesliga picks, as they went 2-1 overall. We cashed with the over in the Hoffenheim-Hertha Berlin showdown and won with our Borussia Dortmund pick — they rolled Schalke 04 by a final score of 4-0. Meanwhile, our one loss was RB Leipzig, who ended up in a draw with Freiburg.
Taking a look ahead to this week’s games, we have action on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Let’s look through the card and see if we can find ourselves some winners.
Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund
Odds: Wolfsburg +350, Draw +300, Dortmund -135
Dortmund cruised last week as they stomped Schalke 4-0, and they didn’t even use a number of their best players. Captain Marco Reus had a rest, and so did Axel Witsel, Emre Can, and Jadon Sancho. Now they’ll be taking on a Wolfsburg team that they’ve dominated of late. They’ve actually won eight of the last nine meetings.
I’m slightly concerned about the lookahead spot, as Dortmund will be playing Bayern Munich right after (mid next week), but we don’t have to pay a huge price tag in this spot. As a result, I’ll take a shot with Dortmund for a second week in a row.
Pick: Dortmund (-135)
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Odds: Monchengladbach +135, Draw +260, Leverkusen +180
This is a matchup of the No. 3 and No. 5 teams in the Bundesliga standings, and neither are what you’d call offensive juggernauts. Monchengladbach, who is third, has scored the fewest of any team in the Top 4, as they have just 52 goals in 26 games. Meanwhile, Leverkusen has the fewest goals of anyone in the Top 5, as they have just 49.
However, taking a look at Monchengladbach, they have both scored and allowed a goal in each of their last eight contests. Looking at the home-away splits, Monchengladbach’s home games have averaged 3.54 goals per game in each, while Leverkusen’s road games have averaged 3.23 goals per game.
With that in mind, I’m looking at an over in this game, as I think we’ll get above 2.5.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-182)
Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Odds: Bayern Munich -800, Draw +750, Eintracht Frankfurt +1400
I’m fairly confident that we’re looking at a Bayern Munich win here. The odds basically tell us as much, as Munich is a -800 on a three-way line and -3500 on a two-way line. Munich is atop the Bundesliga table, while Eintracht Frankfurt is currently 13th, just five points clear of relegation.
Here’s the reality: Bayern Munich, who is fresh off a 2-0 win over Union Berlin, has yet to lose a single competitive game in 2020. Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt is coming off a 3-1 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach in a game where they were trailing 2-0 after the seventh minute.
The other challenge here is that Eintracht Frankfurt is the worst road team in the Bundesliga, as they are 2-1-9 in away games, while Munich is 9-2-2 at home. Eintracht Frankfurt has just 11 goals in their 12 road games, so I’m not expecting a ton of scoring here. I’d prefer a Munich -1.5 line, but at -2 with some plus money, I’m willing to take a shot with Bayern Munich.
Pick: Bayern Munich -2 (+105)