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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Odds & Game Pick

by December 6, 2019

A battle between two of the most disappointing teams in the league is on tap for this weekend, and in all honesty, it may not be taken in by much of anyone outside of the state of Ohio. There is, of course, some individual talent worth tuning in to watch, but these teams as a whole have been bad enough that both of their rookie head coaches could (and should) be fired. With that said, no matter how bad the two teams in a given matchup are, there are always potential winnings to be made. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -10.5 on the Cleveland Browns. The consensus over/under total opened at 42.5 points. The point spread has seen considerable movement and currently sits at -7. The over/under total has climbed to 41.5.
  • Current Line: Cleveland -7
  • O/U: 41.5
  • Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
  • Start Time: 1:00 PM EST, Sunday, December 8th
  • Last Meeting: Cleveland defeated Cincinnati 26-18 – December 23, 2018

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Bengals at Browns.

Overview 

The Cincinnati Bengals’ season was over before it even started. Starting offensive linemen Cordy Glenn and Jonah Williams missed most of the season for what was supposed to be a vastly improved offensive line. Impressive rookie running back and Joe Mixon clone Rodney Anderson was lost for the season. And last, but certainly not least, superstar receiver A.J. Green has been sidelined for the entire season. John Ross has also been sidelined for 10 weeks after the team placed him on injured reserve. The Bengals, at 1-11, are in the pole position for the first overall pick, and so they’ll have their pick of the litter when it comes to addressing their glaring need under center. This is a team that needed an upgrade at quarterback for the last five-plus seasons, and it took becoming the worst team in the league for them to finally get the picture. The Bengals drafted quarterback Ryan Finley as a high-upside backup to Andy Dalton, but once forced into action due to Dalton’s ineffectiveness, Finley showed that he is nothing more than a spot starter on a team devoid of healthy talent at wideout. The Bengals are likely staring at an overhaul at wideout in the offseason, and when you couple that with what is currently projected as the first overall pick, the future is deceivingly bright for the orange and black. 

The 5-7 Cleveland Browns have been the most disappointing team in the league this season. They have already burned the money of those who took Super Bowl and division futures, and they have had the look of a team imploding on itself for the majority of the season. Aside from a stunning, upside flashing victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Browns have been playing at a “fire the rookie head coach midseason” level. The transition from Gregg Williams to Freddie Kitchens has had disastrous results. Williams had the big personality and fire necessary to marshal a room full of talent, but Kitchens does not. Baker Mayfield has regressed in every single statistical category, and he would be enduring bust talk if not for his strong play as a rookie. The Browns still have an outside shot at the last wildcard spot in the AFC, but they will have to win each of their remaining four games of the season. Unfortunately, one of those games will come against the scorching hot Baltimore Ravens that currently sit at first place in the AFC. The Browns should count themselves lucky if they are able to finish with an 8-8 record. 

Trends 

  • Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests played in Cleveland.
  • The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight contests between these two teams. 
  • The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 5-0-1 in the last six contests played between these two teams in Cleveland. 
  • Cincinnati is 5-7 ATS on the season. 
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Cleveland is 4-7 ATS on the season. 
  • Cleveland is 2-3 ATS at home this season. 
  • Cincinnati is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 contests. 
  • Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. 
  • Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests following a win ATS. 
  • Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS in their last three contests. 
  • Cleveland is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
  • Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with a losing road record.
  • Cleveland is 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight contests. 
  • Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests against the AFC North.
  • Under is 9-1-1 in Cincinnati’s last 11 contests as a road underdog. 
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Cincinnati’s last six contests against the AFC North. 
  • Under is 4-1-2 in Cincinnati’s last seven contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last four contests against a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
  • Under is 4-2 in Cleveland’s last six contests. 
  • Under is 7-5 in Cleveland’s 12 contests this season. 

Prop Bets 

Kareem Hunt over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
Finding a worthwhile prop for this contest during the early part of the week was a fool’s errand. Now that PointsBet has increased its prop offerings with the weekend fast approaching, there are numerous standout lines. None, however, stand out more than Kareem Hunt over 28.5 receiving yards. Hunt has cleared this total in two of his four contests this season. He has actually failed to cross this line in his last two contests, despite hauling in seven passes total. Hunt has been heavily involved in the passing game, and he should see five or more targets for the fourth time in his five games back. Hunt was averaging 8.5 targets and 6.5 receptions per game before the Miami matchup that the Browns did not need him to win. He bounced back with five targets last week against Pittsburgh, but after being burned for a 6-46 receiving line by him in Week 11, the Steelers defense was able to limit his receiving yards — they just couldn’t stop him from finding the end zone. Cincinnati has relinquished 44.92 receiving yards per game to the running back position this season. Their high was an insane 140 receiving yards allowed to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This player prop is worth a multi-unit play.

Bottom Line 

The consensus point spread for this contest continues to fall. It opened at -10.5, and it currently sits at a much more palatable -7. The Browns no longer control their own destiny, and they know that they will have to win out in order to make any kind of run for the playoffs. While the Baker Mayfield era has just started, the “super Browns” era may be over before it even began. Kareem Hunt is a free agent, and there have been OBJ trade rumblings all week. Star linebacker Joe Schobert is also a free agent, as is starting left tackle Greg Robinson. The Browns have played bad enough at times this season to make one believe that they could lose this contest outright. A substantial 62 percent of the most accurate experts in BettingPros betting accuracy competition have actually selected Cincinnati to cover, but that was done with spreads as high as +9.5. With the -7 on Cleveland we can currently find at PointsBet available, there is now a Browns’ line with potential value to take advantage of. Cleveland has been bad against the rest of the league, but they do have a 7-3 record against the spread in their last 10 contests against the AFC North working in their favor. Shop for the lightest juice and lock this one in before the line rises at PointsBet.

Pick: Cleveland Browns -7 (-105)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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