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Coca-Cola 600 2022: Kyle Larson Betting Odds, Preview & Prediction

by May 27, 2022
Kyle Larson

Kyle Larson, the NASCAR Cup Series’ defending champion, enters the Coca-Cola 600 as the betting favorite. It makes sense—he won the race from the pole last season—but blindly backing the favorite could cost bettors this weekend.

Larson and his fellow Chevrolets have been at a slight disadvantage lately, at least at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Toyotas controlled four of the top-five spots at Kansas Speedway two weeks ago, and Fords held three of the top-five spots in Texas’ All-Star Race. As a result, bettors should approach Larson’s market with caution.

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Kyle Larson NASCAR Betting Odds

  • Winner: +550
  • Top 5: -140
  • Top 10: -250
  • Matchup: -115 vs. Kyle Busch

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson Track History

Larson has been exceptional at Charlotte Motor Speedway—for Hendrick Motorsports. Before he joined the team in 2021, Larson had recorded just one top-five and three top-10 finishes. While it’s true that he was stuck in Chip Ganassi Racing’s underwhelming equipment, he did win in those cars elsewhere.

To be fair, Larson did usually look good in the All-Star Races held here. He advanced from the 2016 and 2019 All-Star Opens and even won the 2019 race. He also finished second in the 2018 All-Star Race. But outside of those races and the 2021 Coke 600, Larson had only ever led 20 laps in Charlotte.

Kyle Larson Recent Form

Larson trails teammate Chase Elliott in the point standings and ranks an unimpressive ninth. He has one win, six top fives, and seven top 10s this year. Though he ranks second in total top-five finishes, he also owns four DNFs and has completed only 89.5% of the laps this year.

Fortunately, Larson has been great at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this year. He finished second in Las Vegas back in March, and he then finished second in Kansas two weeks ago. He was also running second at the All-Star Race in Texas before blowing a tire and crashing out. But second is the key here—Larson has had solid speed at these tracks, but he is yet to have the dominant car.

Kyle Larson Coke 600 Prediction

Kyle Busch (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook) vs. Kyle Larson
It may surprise some, but I’m not all that high on Larson this week. He could snag a top-three finish, but I don’t think he’ll win, and I think he’ll struggle against the Toyotas. Larson is favored against Kyle Busch for this race with juice of -115, which creates some solid value on his opponent. Kyle Busch owns one win and 15 top-five finishes across 33 starts in Charlotte. His elite resume and Toyota’s solid form make him the driver to back here. Larson had nothing for Kyle Busch back in Texas last weekend. Busch finished third to Larson at both Las Vegas and Kansas, but I suspect he’ll get the better of the Hendrick driver on Sunday.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

Motorsports, NASCAR