We are getting ready to gear up for an exciting week of conference tournaments before hitting the big dance. The power conferences will start on Tuesday, but we have other conference playoffs beginning tonight, one of which includes the top team in the country looking for yet another conference championship.
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San Fransisco vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-13) O/U 154 (Tip 9 p.m. ET)
Gonzaga will head into their conference tournament as the No. 1 team in the country and try to win their ninth West Coast Conference championship in the last ten seasons. They’ve had a bitter taste in their mouths for over a week as they’re coming off a loss to Saint Mary’s that broke their 17-game conference winning streak, and they can’t wait to back to action. This means the Zags swept the Dons this season, beating them by 16 in both games, but since the second half of their first matchup, they have outscored them by 29. The Bulldogs shot well in that last matchup, hitting 50% from three and 54% from the floor, with center Chet Holmgren going for 21 points and 15 rebounds.
San Fransisco hit half of their threes in the last game, and that will be their game plan to try and upset the Zags. The Dons chuck up an average of 26 threes per game which is 24th in the country, and they’re hitting a solid 35% of them. The question is the status of one of their top players — forward Yauhen Massalski missed a significant amount of time in the second half in the win over BYU. With them already being projected to make it to the tournament, the possibility of him playing fewer minutes again is not out of the question.
Seeing what Holmgreen did in the last matchup with Massalski playing a significant time, if he’s on the court less, then it could spell trouble. Still, the Zags are rested, and San Francisco has just a 48-hour turnaround.
Northern Kentucky (-2) vs. Purdue Fort Wayne O/U 135 (Tip 9:30 p.m.)
Purdue Fort Wayne is coming into the semi-final red hot as they were able to go 10-0 in February to capture Horizon League Regular Season co-championship. One of the losses before the streak was to Northern Kentucky, as they held a 31-28 lead going into halftime before being outscored 31-18. This team lives and dies behind the arc as they’re attempting over 25 shots per game from three and hitting an impressive 37%. The reason why they take so many outside shots is that they don’t have any inside presence. They are near the bottom in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding, along with coughing up the ball over 13 times per game. So when they don’t hit their shots, they’re not getting second chances.
Northern Kentucky is also hoit as they’ve won 13 out of 15, and the only losses came from Detriot. Their three-point defense isn’t stellar, but they allow 32.1%, which is below Purdue’s season average. Even in their loss to the Masatdons, they held them to 26.9 from three and outrebounded them 32-30. They have to shoot as well as they did in that win to pull off another.
It seems like the Norse cracked the code in the last matchup in how they held Fort Wayne down in the second of the previous game and even did well at controlling their three-point shots in both games. They should be able to do enough to pull off the win.
Santa Clara vs. No. 19 Saint Mary’s (-5.5) O/U 138 (Tip 11:30 p.m.)
Saint Mary’s had a week to celebrate their big upset over Gonzaga, but they need to get back to business if they want the chance to do it again for the West Coast Conference title. The Gaels is an excellent starting lineup with four players averaging double-digit points, including Matthias Tass, who leads the team in points (12.5 PPG) and rebounds (6.2). They are a well-disciplined team that moves the ball to find their best opportunities to score. You can’t let them get into a groove, or they can put away the game.
These two split the regular-season series as Santa Clara made adjustments in the second game to pull off the win. In the second game, they found their stroke and shot 55.4% from the field, which could have the Gaels on upset alert. The Broncos are one of the best shooting teams in the country as their 49.3% field goal percentage is sixth in the country, and they’re seventh three-point field percentage (38.7%). They have four players scoring over 12 points per game and three hitting over 50% of their shots. One of those includes guard Jalen Williams who is averaging nearly 18 points, shooting 52% from the floor and almost 40% from three.
This game should be fun to watch with two outstanding offensive teams. Both can hit their shots and do very well moving the ball as they have confidence in all of their starters to score. The Broncos at +5.5 is a strong play, and if you want to spice up the parlay, then throw it in, but the best bet is to take the over.
Total Parlay (PointsBet): +596
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