The college football season is still several months away but DraftKings is first on the board with regular season win totals. There is some good value on the board as the public has yet to really get invested in the lines, so let’s take a closer look and see where the best bets are.
Regular Season Win Total: 11
This feels like an easy call. Clemson has no real competition in the ACC as they destroyed everything in their path last season save for a test by Syracuse when Trevor Lawrence suffered an injury. The offense will be absolutely loaded with Trevor Lawrence returning at quarterback, Travis Etienne returning at running back, and elite receivers Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins also back in the fold. Clemson will be unstoppable in all of its ACC games.
The only test out of the conference is likely to be Texas A&M, but that is a home game the Tigers should also win as the Aggies are still building under Jimbo Fisher. So who beats this team? Barring injury, likely no one.
Pick: Over 11 Wins -139
Alabama Crimson Tide
Regular Season Win Total: 11
It feels like this is a test of a season for Nick Saban and Alabama – especially after an uncharacteristic blowout loss in the National Championship game – but let’s all take a step back. This is Alabama. Remember that they smoked all of their regular season competition last year. They were facing double-digit spreads on a weekly basis and crushed most of them as oddsmakers couldn’t make the lines high enough. They beat Auburn 52-21, Mississippi State 24-0, LSU 29-0, and Texas A&M 45-23.
The Tide’s offense should again be spectacular. The passing game is likely to flourish and Alabama will continue to put up video-game-style numbers with Tua Tugovailoa making a strong push for the Heisman Trophy, which he narrowly lost to Kyler Murray a season ago.
Alabama might not have its best defense under Saban, but the Crimson Tide did not have a great defense last season and it did not matter.
Pick: Over 11 +100
Washington State Cougars
Regular Season Win Total: 10
The Cougars won 10 games in last year’s regular season and should have a good team coming back this year, but will they win more than 10 in the regular season? Very doubtful. Washington regularly beats the Cougars. The Huskies have become a nemesis for Washington State. Wazzu beat Oregon last season, but this season the Ducks have Justin Herbert back at quarterback and will host WSU. Last year’s game was hosted by the Cougars. Washington State would have to win all of its other 10 games if it loses to Washington and Oregon. That’s a very tight window for this team. The odds are far better that WSU will go under 10 wins than over.
Pick: Under 10 wins -110
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Regular Season Win Total: 8
The Bulldogs had three first-round NFL Draft picks on their 2018 roster: Jeffery Simmons was picked at No. 19. Montez Sweat was picked at No. 26. Johnathan Abram was picked at No. 27. Three players in the Top 27 of the entire draft and other defensive players were also picked in the first few rounds.
Mississippi State had elite talent and could not win more than eight games last season. If that 2018 team can’t find more than eight wins, why would this year’s team, with clearly less talent and experience, do any better? Mississippi State should lose to Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn. It will have to run the table in its other eight games just to push.
Pick: Under 8 Wins +140