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Detriot Lions at Minnesota Vikings Odds & Game Pick

by December 6, 2019

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The Vikings lost a crucial Monday Night Football showdown against the Seahawks last week, but they still have a good chance at making the playoffs through the Wild Card. Of course, Minnesota isn’t giving up on an NFC North title, where they trail the Packers by one game. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, and they have a good chance to extend that against a beat-up Detroit team. 

The Lions are out of the playoff race and down two quarterbacks at the moment. They have lost five straight games while covering the spread in only one of their last seven contests. Rookie quarterback David Blough will continue to start for Detroit, as Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskel are both out. He went 22-of-38 for 280 yards with two touchdowns and an interception last Thursday versus Chicago, but playing his first NFL road game could be tricky. That’s the main reason behind a double-digit point spread favoring Minnesota.  

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The spread has moved down after opening at Vikings -13.5. The over/under has risen from 42.5. 
  • Current Line: Vikings -12.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: 43.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: U.S. Bank Stadium — Minneapolis, MN
  • Start Time: 1;00 ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: October 20, 2019 — Vikings defeated Lions 42-20 in Detroit

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Lions at Vikings >>

Overview

The Lions rank 23rd in opponent rushing yards per game (118.0) and 20th in yards per carry allowed (4.4). That feeds into the Vikings’ gameplan of establishing the run with Dalvin Cook while keeping the defense off-balance with play action. Minnesota executed that formula to perfection earlier this season at Detroit, as Kirk Cousins tossed for 338 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Dalvin Cook ripped off 142 yards on 25 carries and two touchdowns as well. The main problem lies with Minnesota’s secondary, as they have been exposed several times this season. That’s worrisome whenever a team is favored by nearly two touchdowns, as a leaky secondary could give up a garbage score and fail to cover. 

Trends

  • The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC. 
  • The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC. 
  • The over is 4-0 in the Vikings’ last four games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Lions’ last four as an underdog. 

Prop Bets

Stefon Diggs OVER 62 Receiving Yards
Diggs was relatively quiet in a prime-time spot at Seattle last Monday, catching just three passes for 25 yards. He briefly left the game with a lower-leg injury but returned to his normal role. All indications suggest he’ll be 100% on Sunday. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen will likely miss his fourth straight game, so Diggs will be the primary receiving option for Kirk Cousins. That was the case in the Vikings’ first meeting against the Lions, as Thielen left early with an injury that game. Diggs went on to rack up seven catches for 143 yards that day. Playing out of the elements in a dome doesn’t hurt either. 

Bottom Line

The Lions aren’t good, and taking a rookie quarterback on the road doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. However, I believe this number is too high. David Blough showed competency last week against a tough Bears’ defense, and I think he can keep Detroit in the game against a vulnerable Minnesota secondary. 57% of BettingPros’ experts agree. 

Pick: Lions +12.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.

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