Week 9 of the NFL season had its share of surprising moments. We entered the week with two undefeated teams and two winless teams, and now just one of each remain. The previously unbeaten Patriots were dismantled 37-20 by the Ravens on Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins earned their first win with a 26-18 triumph over the New York Jets. The San Francisco 49ers remain the league’s lone undefeated team, while the Bengals are the only winless team left. From a betting perspective, Week 9 saw a highly unusual trend. Entering Monday night, true home teams are 12-0 ATS. The only exception was the Jacksonville Jaguars failing to cover as 1.5-point home underdogs, though that game was played in London. Here is a look at the early NFL Week 10 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Thursday, November 7th – 8:20 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Oakland Raiders
Predicted Movement: These two AFC West rivals each pulled off impressive wins at home against NFC North opponents last week. The Chargers defense thwarted a red-hot Packers’ offense and held Green Bay to 184 total yards in a 26-11 win. The Raiders were happy to be home for the first time in over a month as they knocked off the Lions 31-24. Oakland has the advantage of playing its second straight home game, and they don’t have to travel on a short week. The Chargers-Packers game was the CBS national game of the week last week. Given that most of the country got to see Los Angeles’s impressive performance, this line should move even more in Los Angeles’ favor.
Sunday, November 10th – 1:00 PM EST
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Predicted Movement: This is another game where the opponents share something in common from a week ago. They both fought valiantly and took two NFC West playoff contenders to the brink. Arizona lost 28-25 to San Francisco on Thursday night, while Tampa Bay lost a heartbreaking overtime shootout in Seattle 40-34. Here are the totals from the last six games Tampa Bay has played: 63, 95, 55, 63, 50, 74. This game already features the highest total on the board. Given that Tampa Bay finds themselves in shootouts most weeks, look for this already high total to climb even more.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-11.5)
Predicted Movement: Both of these NFC South opponents come in rested off bye weeks. Drew Brees was under center two weeks ago for the first time since a thumb injury suffered Week 2. He hardly looked rusty as he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals. New Orleans has won three straight against Atlanta, and their last two in New Orleans by an average of 12 PPG. Keep an eye on Alvin Kamara’s status as he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. If he is healthy for this contest, this line should creep closer to two touchdowns.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2)
Predicted Movement: The Buffalo Bills are 6-2 and the Cleveland Browns are 2-6, yet it is the Browns who open favored by two points. I guess the Bills are winning “too ugly” for the oddsmakers’ liking. Meanwhile, the Browns are in the midst of a four-game losing streak during which they are being outscored by 12.8 PPG. Given the fact that the 2-6 team is favored over a 6-2 team, this game has the feel of a “pros vs joes” set up. Sharp money should combat public money all week, and keep this number close to a two-point spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Predicted Movement: This spread comes down to the health of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Early indications point to him being back for this matchup, given that he was ruled out so late in the week this week. Even if he doesn’t play, Matt Moore looks more than capable of leading the Chiefs to victory. Moore brought the Chiefs back from a fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Vikings 26-23. If you like the Chiefs in this game, jump on this spread now as it is the lowest it will be all week.
New York Giants (-2.5) at New York Jets
Predicted Movement: Before Week 9 began, the look-ahead line on this game was the Jets -1. A loss to the winless Dolphins will certainly go a long way in moving a line for the following week. The Jets now find themselves 2.5-point underdogs to the Giants a week after they mustered just one offensive touchdown against the Dolphins. This is not a true road game for the Giants, as they play in the same stadium as the Jets. There should be enough sharp money on the Jets to keep this line under the key number of three. However, the Giants will almost certainly kick-off as the favorites.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3)
Predicted Movement: Green Bay and Minnesota have quickly created some distance between them and these two teams in the NFC North. The loser of this game will have an extremely difficult time getting themselves back into playoff contention. The Bears have failed to score more than two offensive touchdowns in each of their last three games. Given how documented the struggles of Mitchell Trubisky are, look for this over/under to come down even more before kickoff.
Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Predicted Movement: The Baltimore Ravens looked awfully impressive in a convincing 37-20 win over the previously unbeaten Patriots. The Ravens were clearly the more physical team, as they rushed for 210 total yards. The Bengals remain the NFL’s lone winless team and will turn to quarterback Ryan Finley for his first NFL start. Given the uncertainty with the Bengals at quarterback and how dominant Baltimore looked on national television, this spread is likely the lowest it will be all week.
Sunday, November 10th – 4:05 PM EST
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-11.5)
Predicted Movement: The Indianapolis Colts not only lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-24 on Sunday, but they lost quarterback Jacoby Brissett to a knee injury in the process. Keep an eye on his status throughout the week, as he’s dealing with an MCL sprain and reportedly has a chance to play Week 10. Veteran Brian Hoyer filled in admirably for Brissett, as he threw for 168 yards and three touchdowns. Miami has played better of late, earning their first win last week and covering their last four games. Given the Dolphins’ recent competitiveness and the injury to Brissett, there will be enough Dolphins’ money to keep this line from inflating all week.
Sunday, November 10th – 4:25 PM EST
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Predicted Movement: Outside of Carolina’s 51-13 debacle at San Francisco two weeks ago, they have played very well of late. Carolina has won five of their last six games, and running back Christian McCaffrey bolsters his MVP candidacy week after week. The Packers saw their four-game winning streak snapped with a surprisingly inept offensive performance last week. Green Bay amassed just 184 total yards in a 26-11 loss to the Chargers. They will come home to Lambeau where they have averaged 28 PPG this season. Green Bay has the 24th ranked rush defense, and Carolina ranks 27th. Bettors will have confidence that both teams will find success on the ground, and thus, the over/under should creep closer to 50 by kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Predicted Movement: Would the Steelers have beaten the Colts if Jacoby Brissett hadn’t gotten hurt. Maybe, maybe not, but Pittsburgh will say a win is a win. They have now won three straight and have brought their record to an even 4-4 on the year. Pittsburgh will benefit from playing their third straight home game, while the Rams come in rested off a bye. Much has been made of the struggles Rams quarterback Jared Goff has had on the road throughout his career. Given this trend and the fact that the Steelers are such a public team, I do not expect this line to move much throughout the week.
Sunday, November 10th – 8:20 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Predicted Movement: The Minnesota Vikings squandered a great opportunity to steal a win on the road against a compromised Chiefs team. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Vikings. This is a strength vs strength matchup as the Vikings’ third-ranked rushing offense faces a Cowboys’ rush defense that allows less than 100 YPG. Both of these teams rank in the top seven in the league in PPG allowed. Given bettors’ confidence in both of these defenses, look for the over/under to come down some before kickoff.
Monday, November 11th – 8:15 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Predicted Movement: The Seattle Seahawks got a monster performance from MVP candidate Russell Wilson as they edged Tampa Bay in overtime 40-34. Wilson tied his career-high with five touchdown passes, throwing for 378 yards in the process. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw four touchdowns of his own in a 28-25 Thursday night win over Arizona. The 49ers are 2-4 SU in their last six meetings at home against Seattle. Their last two home wins against the Seahawks have come by an average of 2.5 PPG. Given the familiarity between these two teams, and the level that Russell Wilson is playing at, 6.5 points feels like too much to lay in this matchup. Don’t be surprised if bettors agree and bring this line down to -5.5 or -5.