Just when you thought the NFL could not get any crazier, Week 13 provided upsets all over the place. The Bengals, Dolphins, and Redskins entered Week 13 with a combined four wins between them, and all won outright. Their wins severely diminished the playoff chances of the Jets, Eagles, and Panthers, respectively. A $100 money line parlay on these three teams would have netted roughly $6,000.
Week 14 provides some monster games in terms of playoff positioning and seeding. Ravens-Bills, 49ers-Saints, and Chiefs-Patriots could all be playoff previews. In addition, the Sunday Night game between the Seahawks and Rams is important for both teams, as the Seahawks try to keep pace with the 49ers for the division while the Rams try to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Here is a look at the early Week 14 lines and predicted movement for each game.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Thursday, December 5th – 8:20 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears
Predicted Movement: Both of these teams play on Thursday for a second consecutive week. At the moment, they appear headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys enter this contest as losers of three of their last four games, while the Bears have won three of their last four.
The Cowboys are still a very public team, but they are receiving less and less public support each week. Owner Jerry Jones continues to articulate how upset he is with coach Jason Garrett, even though he insists that Garrett’s job is safe through the end of the season. The public also knows the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record all year. While the Bears would not qualify at 6-6, many bettors have the sense that the Cowboys are not as good as their record says. It would take a lot of Bears support to move off the key number of three, but it is likely that the Cowboys will kick off as less than a field goal favorite.
Sunday, December 8th – 1:00 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (-5) at Buffalo Bills
Predicted Movement: Before the season started, it was unlikely that the Ravens-Bills Week 14 game would have been thought of as a hyped matchup. However, the Ravens enter at 10-2 while the Bills are 9-3. Buffalo likely earned more respect from the public with their Thanksgiving Day trouncing of the Cowboys. Still, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the hottest team in football. During their eight-game winning streak, they have beaten the likes of the Patriots, 49ers, Texans, Rams, and Seahawks. Though the Bills have played solid football all year, they have not beaten anyone as close to the caliber of Baltimore. With that in mind, look for the Ravens to kickoff as closer to touchdown favorites.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Predicted Movement: What was a promising start to Kyle Allen’s tenure as the Panthers’ starting quarterback has been spiraling downward. Allen started 5-1 in his first six appearances, and he has since lost his last four in a row. None of those losses were as bad as last week’s home loss to the Redskins. Their game against the Falcons is a rematch of a 29-3 Falcons road win three weeks ago. Bettors will likely take notice of the Panthers’ slide and the fact that Atlanta dominated them so recently. Look for the spread to move through the key number of three before kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8)
Predicted Movement: Because Ryan Finley did not do much to inspire confidence in him going forward, the Bengals turned back to Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback. Dalton looked like he was playing for a starting job next year, as he breathed life into the Bengals offense. Cincinnati won their first game of the year last week, beating the resurgent Jets 22-6. The Browns’ playoff hopes took a serious blow with a 20-13 loss to the Bengals. The loss dropped them to 10th in the AFC at 5-7.
With a team like the Browns, you wonder if they have the leadership and composure to finish out the year on a high note. Before their win, the Bengals looked competitive in low-scoring games against the Raiders and Steelers with Ryan Finley at quarterback. With Dalton under center, there is no reason that the public won’t believe they can be competitive once again. Look for the spread to creep closer to -7, while the over/under may tick down some as well.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Predicted Movement: The Drew Lock era had a nice beginning, as the Broncos beat the Chargers 23-20. The Texans may have scored the biggest win of last week, as they beat the Patriots 28-22 on Sunday Night. This game has the making of a “pros vs. joes” set up. The public is likely to pound the Texans after their impressive performance on national television. Sharps are likely to side with Denver, citing a potential hangover from the Texans’ big win. There is also the “trap game” aspect at play, as the Texans travel to Tennessee next week in a game that may decide the AFC South. While the spread won’t move much, the over should tick up a little as Drew Lock showed he is capable of moving the ball for the Broncos offense.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13.5)
Predicted Movement: The Lions get a big scheduling advantage in this matchup. Detroit played the early game on Thanksgiving while the Vikings are coming back from the west coast after having played on Monday night. This is a rematch of a game the Vikings won 42-30 in Detroit. While Matthew Stafford started in that game, David Blough certainly looked capable of moving the Lions offense with his performance last week. Detroit has the 23rd-ranked rush defense, which is never a good recipe when facing the Vikings’ run-heavy scheme. Given the high-scoring affair of the first contest and that Blough looked good in his first start, this over/under should come up a couple of points throughout the week.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Predicted Movement: The Buccaneers have earned two impressive road wins in a row, beating the Falcons and Jaguars. They are facing the Colts at a great time, as Indianapolis is dealing with a myriad of injuries. Keep an eye on the injury statuses of Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton. If they cannot play, look for this over/under to tick down a couple of points.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6)
Predicted Movement: The Dolphins earned their first win of the season when they beat the Jets 26-18 four weeks ago. The fact that the Jets couldn’t beat the winless Bengals doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in them. Setting the line under a touchdown seems about right. However, the last three Dolphins games have seen 57, 55, and 68 points scored. Look for this over/under to come up slightly as a result of this history.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Predicted Movement: The 49ers played their hearts out in a 20-17 last-second loss to the Ravens. San Francisco was able to hold Lamar Jackson to just 105 yards passing, though he did gain 101 on the ground. This is another game with a “pros vs. joes” feel. The public will look at a result like this and give more credit to the 49ers, even in a loss. Sharps will likely look at the schedule and see this is two consecutive weeks that the 49ers have had to travel to the east coast and play in the early time slot. This is a huge disadvantage and one that may see the Saints favored by more than a field goal.
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-14)
Predicted Movement: The Redskins are on a two-game winning streak and seem to be playing with more confidence of late. They got their running game going to the tune of 248 rushing yards with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. That is a formula the Redskins will try to duplicate, so as to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay should have no problem scoring against a Redskins defense that allows more than 24 PPG. This over/under should be the lowest it will be all week.
Sunday, December 8th – 4:05 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Predicted Movement: The Chargers have managed to find every way possible to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Last week’s version was a field goal as time expired in losing to the Broncos 23-20. The Jaguars are a complete mess at the moment, losing four games in a row by an average of 20.5 PPG. Nick Foles was benched for Gardner Minshew after committing three turnovers. The Jaguars simply cannot be trusted at the moment. However, the Chargers have lost three in a row and are not inspiring confidence either. There should not be too much movement in this line.
Sunday, December 8th – 4:25 PM EST
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-2.5)
Predicted Movement: This seems to be about the right time for the annual “panic on the Patriots” moment. New England lost 28-22 to the Texans, and their 22 points were the most they have scored in four weeks. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid added to his impressive record off of a bye week as they destroyed the Raiders 40-9. No matter how much “turmoil” the Patriots are enduring, there is no way they would be an underdog in Foxborough. However, this over/under seems high, given how poorly the Patriots offense is playing. Look for bettors to have faith in Bill Belichick’s defense to have a gameplan for Patrick Mahomes. This over/under should settle closer to 47 by kickoff.
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Oakland Raiders
Predicted Movement: The Titans improved to 5-1 with Ryan Tannehill as the starter with an impressive 31-17 win over Indianapolis. While the Raiders are in the midst of a two-game losing streak, both of these losses came on the road. They now face the Titans at home, where they have won four in a row. The fact that the Raiders have been so hot at home will offset the perception that the Titans are red-hot. However, this over/under will likely tick up given how well Tannehill and the Titans offense has looked for the last month.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Predicted Movement: Week 13 could not have been more different for these two teams. Both took on divisional rivals, with the Steelers earning a confidence-building win while the Cardinals were blown out at home. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin may be doing his best coaching job ever this season. He has led the Steelers to a 7-5 record and the precipice of the playoffs with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges as his quarterbacks. Given that the Steelers are one of the most public teams out there, this line should creep closer to a field goal by kickoff.
Sunday, December 8th – 8:20 PM EST
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Predicted Movement: The Rams, and specifically their offense, quieted critics for a week with their 34-7 trouncing of the Cardinals. Jared Goff threw for 424 yards, and Todd Gurley almost had a 100-yard rushing day. In all, the Rams amassed 549 yards of total offense. The Rams and Seahawks played a 30-29 thriller in Week 5. Given the high scoring nature of that game and how good the Rams offense looked last week, this over/under should creep closer to 50 by kickoff.
Monday, December 9th- 8:15 PM EST
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
Predicted Movement: The Eagles blew a golden opportunity to tie the Cowboys at the top of the NFC East. They could not beat the Dolphins in Miami, and their defense got exposed in a 37-31 shocker. Carson Wentz was happy to have Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor back. He looked good, throwing for 310 yards and three touchdowns. However, their defense had no answer for Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker. The Giants defense has allowed 31 or more points in five of their last six games. Given that both defenses are coming off of poor performances, this over/under should tick up slightly.