It was a quirky Week 5 betting-wise in the NFL. Underdogs were “barking” as they went 6-8 SU, but covered only one other spread (Rams lost SU, covered +1.5). Favorites went 8-6 SU and 7-7-1 ATS. The two biggest favorites (Patriots and Eagles) rolled to easy covers, as oddsmakers seem to have a hard time determining just how high to make some lines. As is life in the NFL, there is more injury news that will certainly affect this week’s action. Here is a look at the early NFL Week 6 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week. (odds courtesy of FanDuel)
Thursday, October 10th – 8:20 PM EST
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-16.5) – O/U 43
Predicted Movement: New England is now 3-2 ATS on the year, and 2-1 ATS when favored by double digits. The lone game they did not cover as a heavy favorite was against the Jets. In that game, they surrendered two defensive touchdowns while their defense did not let up a point. Though the Patriots fell behind 7-0 last week against Washington, they still rolled to an easy cover after scoring 33 unanswered points. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones looked every bit a rookie against a stout Minnesota defense. He completed 55% of his passes with one interception while missing a bunch of other open receivers. The Giants were limited to 64 yards rushing and 3.2 YPC after Wayne Gallman left with a concussion.
The Giants backfield injuries are worth monitoring this week. If Saquon Barkley is still out with an ankle injury, I don’t see bettors finding any confidence in the Giants ability to move the ball. The Patriots defense is off to one of the best starts all-time, and the public will surely pound New England on a short week. If this line moves through the key number of 17, it means both public and sharp action is on the same side and that oddsmakers are adjusting accordingly.
Sunday, October 13th- 9:30 AM EST
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) – O/U 48
Predicted Movement: This is the second straight week an NFL game will be played in London. It is also a rematch of a Thursday night game played between these teams four weeks ago. Though the Panthers were held to just 14 points in that contest, they played that game with a banged-up Cam Newton as their starting quarterback. Since that game, Kyle Allen has led the Panthers to three straight wins (and three straight covers). Look for bettors to place more trust in Allen and the Panthers instead of the inconsistent Bucs. Carolina should be the small favorites in this game by kickoff.
Sunday, October 13th- 1:00 PM EST
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) – O/U 55.5
Predicted Movement: The Indianapolis Colts did the unthinkable last week, not only beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead but making the Chiefs offense look pedestrian in the process. Patrick Mahomes took a beating under constant pressure last week, and at one point limped off with what looked like a debilitating ankle injury. Kansas City’s running game did nothing to help take the pressure off Mahomes, as they rushed for just 36 yards on 14 carries. Houston’s 53-point explosion last week likely inspired confidence that the Texans can hang with Kansas City on the road. If Mahomes’ injury is serious and if Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins cannot play, look for bettors to bring this spread under a touchdown by kickoff.
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars – O/U 45
Predicted Movement: All Teddy Bridgewater has done since taking over for the injured Drew Brees is lead the Saints to three consecutive wins over some high-quality opponents (Seahawks, Cowboys, Buccaneers). He threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns in a comfortable win over Tampa Bay last week. The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Jacksonville’s 34-27 loss at Carolina silenced Minshew Mania for at least a week. Bettors will see how consistent New Orleans has remained under Bridgewater, and this spread should kick off closer to New Orleans -2.5 or -3.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-12) – O/U 47.5
Predicted Movement: The Pittsburgh Steelers defense made Lamar Jackson look average last week, as he threw for just 161 yards and three interceptions. Though the Ravens eeked out an overtime win, they may not be inspiring much confidence considering the Steelers played the second half with a third-string quarterback. The Ravens are still big favorites over the lowly Bengals, especially after Cincinnati couldn’t beat a winless Arizona team in their own building. Look for bettors to forgive Baltimore’s ugly performance on the road last week and expect them to bounce back at home. This spread could tick closer to two touchdowns.
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – O/U 44
Predicted Movement: The Minnesota Vikings silenced the outside noise about their struggling offense with a dominant 28-10 win over the Giants. Though Stefon Diggs’ stats were not pretty (3 catches for 44 yards), both Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen had tremendous games. Philadelphia turned in a tremendous defensive performance in their 31-6 win over the Jets, scoring two defensive touchdowns and holding the Jets to just 128 total yards. With both offenses playing inconsistently and their defenses coming off huge performances, look for bettors to react by bringing down the O/U a couple points.
Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) – O/U 47
Predicted Movement: The Seahawks are coming off longer rest after a thrilling Thursday night win over the Rams. Meanwhile, the Browns are on a short week after they travel back from the West Coast off their Monday night tilt with the 49ers. From a rest standpoint alone, that is a huge advantage in favor of Seattle. Given also the fact that Seattle is 2-0 ATS on the road and Cleveland is 0-2 ATS at home, and this line should move closer to a pick’em by kickoff.
Washington Redskins (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins – O/U 41
Predicted Movement: The Dolphins are perhaps the only team in the NFL that the Redskins would be a favorite against at this point. Washington will be playing its first game under interim coach Bill Callahan after the team parted ways with Jay Gruden last week. Time will tell if this move will revitalize the team or if the players in the Redskins locker room have mailed it in for the season. The Dolphins are coming in rested off a bye last week. This game is likely to be the least bet game of the day, which means there won’t be much to move the line in either direction.
Sunday, October 13th- 4:05 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals – O/U 52
Predicted Movement: The Atlanta Falcons haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed lately. The 53 points they allowed to the Texans was the latest in a recent string of disappointing defensive performances. The Cardinals have been competitive in three of their first five games so far, even though they only have a 1-3-1 record to show for it. Atlanta is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this year while Arizona is 3-2 ATS overall. Look for sharps to show confidence in the Cardinals to protect their home turf and move this line closer to -1 or -1.5. I expect the over to tick up a little as well.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) – O/U 49
Predicted Movement: The Los Angeles Rams have been involved in back-to-back shootouts. It is surprising how bad their defense which features Aaron Donald continues to be. While there is familiarity between these two divisional opponents, the over is 6-2 in the Rams last eight home games. Head-to-head, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. This total should be bet into the 50s by kickoff.
Sunday, October 13th- 4:25 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) at New York Jets – O/U 43.5
Predicted Movement: The movement of this line comes down to one thing: the health of Sam Darnold. On Tuesday, Darnold is set to undergo more tests to find out the status of his enlarged spleen. The Jets offense simply looks anemic under Luke Falk as they were held to 128 total yards last week. If Falk is once again the Jets starter, this line will skyrocket into the double digits.
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – O/U 40
Predicted Movement: Which Tennessee offense will show up this week? Will it be the one that scored seven points apiece in their last two losses? Or the one that scored 43 on Cleveland in Week 1. The trends have pointed to the Titans offense struggling lately and that Denver has momentum after an upset at Los Angeles. Thus, this spread has a good chance to be bet through the key number of three.
Sunday, October 13th- 8:20 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-7) – O/U 41.5
Predicted Movement: The Los Angeles Chargers did nothing last week to inspire confidence in bettors. Head coach Anthony Lynn was baffled by how they were outplayed and outcoached by the Denver Broncos. However, the Chargers start the week as touchdown favorites over Pittsburgh who will turn to undrafted quarterback Devlin Hodges. Hodges went 7-9 passing for 68 yards in relief of the concussed Mason Rudolph. However, he cannot simply be a game manager if the Steelers have any hopes of upsetting the Chargers. I expect Chargers money to keep pouring in throughout the week, moving this spread closer to double digits by kickoff.
Monday, October 14th- 8:15 PM EST
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5) – O/U 47
Predicted Movement: The Green Bay Packers are still banged up, namely with an injury to their star receiver Davante Adams. However, that injury didn’t prevent them from finding their ground game. Aaron Jones rushed for 107 yards and four touchdowns last week. The Lions come in rested off a bye, and look to take over first place in the NFC North. Beating the Cowboys in the fashion that Green Bay did is sure to cast a spotlight on them. The Lions are going to have to prove more than they’ve done to this point for bettors to think they are ready to win a road game of this magnitude. Look for this spread to tick up a couple points throughout the week.