For sports bettors looking for more baseball options, here is a look at the Five Innings Bet. We will focus on how to strategize for profit potential when betting on five-inning baseball outcomes.
Find all of our articles on sports betting strategy tips & advice >>
Five Innings Bet Strategy
As with other major sports, oddsmakers will offer money lines in baseball. This is where a bettor would choose which side they believe will win the game outright. In addition, there are full game over/unders as well as a myriad of props one can wager on. A five-innings bet will have many of the same choices that a full game bet would have. The exception is that these bets conclude after five innings, rather than waiting for the full nine.
Here are some tips to think about when making a five-innings wager, as well as advantages for betting on a shortened game.
Take Bullpens out of the Equation
Millions of bettors have experienced the frustration of losing a bet on a team that was winning, only to see the bullpen blow a late lead. In today's day and age of baseball, starting pitchers are working deep into the game less and less. This is a result of managers eschewing their starter for a bevy of high-powered arms in the bullpen. Certain starting pitchers are seen as the "workhorses" of their staff; however, even these pitchers often leave after six innings. That means each of their bullpens is responsible for an average of at least six outs in their starts.
In general, bettors would be wise to remember this general rule: starting pitching is usually better than relief pitching. This makes sense, considering starters are asked to get the majority of the outs in a game. The best bullpen ERA from any team in 2019 was 3.66 (Tampa Bay Rays). That ERA would rank just fifth compared to the ERA of all starting staffs.
Look for Disparities in Odds Between Five-Inning Lines and Full Game Lines
Typically, the money line odds for a team to win the full game vs. winning the first five innings are not vastly different. For example, if the New York Mets were -200 to win a game that deGrom was starting, they may be anywhere from -190 to -240 to win the first five innings. Thus, bettors could take into account statistics such as the bullpen ERA versus the starting pitcher’s ERA. Or, one could find value in looking at a pitcher's numbers and how they differ the second or third time through the lineup.
In most cases, the over/under on a five-inning line is half of what the full game total is. Therefore, a game that had an over/under of eight would have a five-inning over/under of four. If bullpens are taken out of the equation, there is potentially big value on one side or the other of the total. In addition, if a home team is winning a game after the top of the 9th inning, there is no need for them to bat in the bottom half. Thus, that is three fewer outs from which to potentially score runs. Bettors should be aware that this idea would never factor into a five-inning line, as both teams would bat for an equal number of outs.
Analyze First Inning ERA's of Pitchers and Early Game Run-Prevention
A popular prop in most baseball games is whether a run will be scored in the first inning. Because of this, the ERAs of pitchers in the first inning have become a prominent statistic. There are certain pitchers who do not start games well. Maybe as a visiting pitcher, it takes them time to adjust to the mound. Whatever the reason, research clearly delineates which parts of the game some pitchers perform best or worst. As a five-innings bettor, if one found that a pitcher tends to struggle in the first inning, the over on a five-innings play would present value, especially if the total was half of what the full game line was set at.
In a five-inning bet, the first inning accounts for just 20% of the betting action. However, these are important trends as the first inning could dictate how the rest of the five innings play out.
Get all of our sports betting 101 topics >>
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.