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Futures: 2019 NFL MVP Odds (Sports Betting)

by July 4, 2019
Patrick Mahomes

With training camp just a few weeks away, many fans have begun pondering the idea of which player will be crowned the MVP of the 2019 season. There are so many options to consider, but at the end of the season, only one player will win the title. Below are just several players that currently possess some of the best odds at becoming this year’s MVP. Please keep in mind, though, these odds are subject to change throughout the course of the offseason and regular season due to various external/internal factors. Now with that out of the way, let’s quickly scan through some of the possibilities.

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Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC):+600
The reigning 2018 NFL MVP sits atop the list with the best chances to repeat and defend his title in 2019. In 2018, he led an explosive Kansas City Chiefs offense, as he threw for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns, and maintained a QBR of 81.8 (best in the league). Despite having lost an incredible playmaker in Kareem Hunt late last season, and with an impending suspension to the speedy Tyreek Hill for this upcoming year, Mahomes still has the best bet to take home the 2019 MVP Award once again.

It certainly was not his fault for the Chiefs’ heartbreaking playoff loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game this past year. In that contest, he completed 16 out of 31 passes for 295 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Sadly, the Kansas City defense failed on multiple occasions to close out the game to send home the Patriots.

Yes, there may be some regression from Mahomes considering that replicating a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season is incredibly hard to do, but that does not mean 2019 will be a disappointment. Take for example Brett Favre in 1995 and 1996. He won MVP in back-to-back seasons with a lower total in passing yards, completion percentage, and quarterback rating in 1996. It can definitely happen that Mahomes’ numbers will dip a little, and still win the MVP title in 2019.

Andrew Luck (QB – IND): +900
At the beginning of the 2018 season, many people did not believe Andrew Luck would be as impressive as he would have been, after not playing football for over a year with a shoulder injury in 2017. Luck bounced back in an epic way with a Pro Bowl type of season as he completed 67.3% of his passes for 4,593 yards, 39 touchdowns, and only 15 interceptions. After starting off 1-5, Luck helped the Colts do a complete 180 and ended up winning nine out of their last 10 games to claim a Wild Card berth in the playoffs.

Indianapolis then went on to defeat their division rivals, the Houston Texans, in the first round of the playoffs as Luck threw for 222 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and an interception. Unfortunately, Luck and the Colts’ magical season came to an abrupt end when they faced off against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium just one week later in the Divisional Round of the postseason. Even though the Colts were overmatched in that game against Kansas City, Luck’s 2018 performance and the impact he had on his team can’t simply be ignored.

Luck definitely has the talent to be the 2019 MVP, and he also has some great weapons to support him such as T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, and Marlon Mack to name a few. The 2018 Comeback Player of the Year will look to set the bar a little higher for himself as he will attempt to claim the MVP crown in 2019.

Russell Wilson (QB – SEA): +1800
It is absolutely amazing how Russell Wilson has managed to keep the Seattle Seahawks a relevant team even after the Legion of Boom dispersed over the last couple of years. Even without a strong offensive line, Wilson manages to keep Seattle in just about every game due to his elusive playmaking ability. He’s had back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons in 2017 and 2018 as he threw for 34 and 35 touchdowns in each season, respectively.

While he’s never thrown for over 4,300 yards in a single season of his career, he makes big plays in the big moments and is extremely effective on the ground attack. In six out of his seven seasons playing in the NFL, Wilson has maintained a rushing average of 5.2 yards per carry or more. In seasons when he has a down year in terms of passing yards thrown, he makes up for it with his skilled running talents. For example in 2014, Wilson only threw for 3,475 yards and 20 touchdowns, but backed it up with 849 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Similar scenarios like this happened in just about every year of his career except for maybe 2016, where he only rushed for 259 yards and a touchdown on 72 attempts.

If there is anyone more deserving for an MVP award, it would be this man right here. Should Seattle have success yet again, and if they are to create some exciting upsets like surprising the Los Angeles Rams in their division, Wilson will definitely be up there in the conversation for a 2019 MVP Award.

Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): +3400
Much like Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson is a very versatile quarterback that can make things happen both through the air and on the ground for his team. However, things did get off to a rough start in the 2018 season when the Texans dropped to 0-3. During that stretch, Watson only completed 59.4% of his passes for 871 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. In addition, he rushed the ball only 18 times for 120 yards and no scores. The season looked very bleak, to say the least, for Watson and the Texans.

Then miraculously, Houston was able to right the ship as they ended up winning 11 out of their last 13 games of the season to claim the AFC South Division title. Watson obviously was a major factor in the team’s sudden turnaround as he improved his completion percentage to 70.7%, and threw 21 touchdowns against only six interceptions during this frame. Also, Watson became more effective in the run department as he rushed for 431 yards and five touchdowns on 81 attempts. Since coming into the league in 2017, only two other quarterbacks (Cam Newton and Russell Wilson) have more rushing yards than Watson’s 820. As long as he can stay healthy, Watson could be a reasonable candidate to claim the 2019 MVP Award in early February.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL); +3400
The first three players on this list were quarterbacks, but sometimes a running back can get thrown into the mix if the conditions are just right. Ezekiel Elliott appears to be in a position where he can leapfrog over all the elite passers of the game for the 2019 MVP Award. The reason being is he has been the focal point of the Dallas Cowboys’ offense for the last three seasons. Everything runs through Zeke, and most of Dallas’ offensive success is highly dependent on him.

Since his inception in the league (2016), he has been used the most often in any team’s rush offense with 868 carries, which is 55 more than second-place Todd Gurley. His numbers would be even higher if he had not served a six-game suspension during the 2017 regular season. Had his 2017 season not been derailed with a suspension, Elliott was on pace to most likely lead the league in carries and rushing attempts in three straight individual seasons with the Cowboys.

Furthermore, in the two years Elliott played a full season, the Cowboys have averaged almost 12 wins per year. In the season where he missed some time, Dallas only won nine games and just missed out on the playoffs. This proves that Elliott is the star of the team, and their success is highly dependent on his production. Elliott is the very definition of a “bell-cow” back and if there is any non-quarterback to possibly claim the 2019 MVP Award it is him. With a dominant offensive line that just got a little healthier with Travis Frederick returning, Elliott may become the first non-quarterback MVP of the NFL since Adrian Peterson in 2012.

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Matthew Catalano is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @MatthewCatala16.