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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers Odds & Game Pick (2020)

by November 4, 2020
Aaron Rodgers

Week 9’s Thursday Night Football matchup pits a pair of teams looking to rebound from disappointing losses. In a bit of an odd caveat to that, the visiting Green Bay Packers have a much more positive outlook for the remainder of the 2020 season than the host San Francisco 49ers. Despite COVID-19’s infiltration of the Packers and 49ers’ locker room, the game will go on as scheduled.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: 49ers -1; O/U 51
  • Current ATS Line: Packers -5.5
  • Current Over/Under: 50.5
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
  • Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
  • Television: FOX, NFL Network
  • Last Meeting: January 1, 2020 – The 49ers defeated the Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship Game in Santa Clara.
  • Attendance: No fans will be allowed to attend.
-5.5
-110
o49.5
-114
-250
JOIN NOW
+5.5
-110
u49.5
-106
+205

View consensus picks from experts for Packers at 49ers >>

Overview

The Packers suffered a setback at home this past weekend to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay’s inability to finish tackles defensively was on full display more than once as Vikings running back Dalvin Cook had a monster day with 4 touchdowns. The Packers do catch a bit of a break in that they won’t have to worry about tackling star 49ers tight end George Kittle after he was ruled out for eight weeks due to a broken foot.

A combination of excellent play by the Vikings defensive front and windy conditions at Lambeau Field also prevented Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing offense from ever getting into a groove. With A.J. Dillon testing positive for the coronavirus, both he and fellow running back Jamaal Williams will be unavailable Thursday night thanks to the NFL’s contact-tracing protocols. Aaron Jones has missed each of Green Bay’s last two games due to injury. Whether or not he will be ready for Thursday remains to be seen, but Green Bay may find themselves leaning on Tyler Ervin in the backfield.

While both teams have COVID concerns, the 49ers continue to be marred with injuries as well. After back-to-back convincing wins that made fans and bettors alike wonder if San Francisco was back to their winning ways of a season ago, a horrendous showing against the division-rival Seattle Seahawks dampened expectations greatly. Complicating the loss on the scoreboard was the loss of both Kittle and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the foreseeable future to injuries. At this point, you could field an entire team from just the players San Francisco has lost to injury.

Nick Mullens will get the start at quarterback for the 49ers on Thursday night. He played well in relief of Garoppolo on Sunday, albeit in garbage time. The bigger problem is Mullens will be without the team’s top FOUR receiving options with Kittle and Deebo Samuel out with injury and Kendrick Bourne and Brandon Aiyuk sitting due to a false-positive COVID test. Starting left tackle Trent Williams will also sit due to his close contact with Bourne. Defensively, the 49ers may once again be without safety Jaquiski Tartt as they try to contain Rodgers and Davante Adams. The team also traded linebacker Kwon Alexander to the New Orleans Saints on Monday.

Trends

  1. Packers 2020 Betting Trends: 5-2 ATS; 4-3 to the Over
  2. 49ers 2020 Betting Trends: 4-4 ATS; 4-4 to the Over
  3. The Packers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.
  4. The 49ers are 3-0 ATS in their last three head-to-head meetings with the Packers.
  5. The 49ers have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight head-to-head meetings against the Packers.

Prop Bet

Same Game Spread / Total Points Parlay: Packers -3.5 & Under 58.5 (+115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

FanDuel Sportsbook does a great job of offering several different same-game parlays for bettors to peruse. While there are a lot of ways to handicap this Thursday night game given the injuries and coronavirus complications that the two teams are battling, I settled on a parlay that combines the Packers as 3.5-point favorites with the Under on a total of 58.5 (listed under “Spread / Total Points Parlay 5”). I fully expect Green Bay to get the win by a comfortable margin when it’s all said and done. -3.5 earns us two points in the Packers’ favor compared to the current straight spread of -5.5. The parlay total of 58.5 is a full 8 points higher than where the regular total is currently priced in the market. Neither team brings an imposing defense to the table, but both sides will be shorthanded offensively as well. I think the game comfortably stays under this alternate total. At +115 odds, I like the value on this parlay prop a lot based on how I see the game unfolding.

Bottom Line

The point spread for this game has been on the move since opening with the 49ers as a narrow 1-point home favorite. Of course, the game was taken off the betting market entirely as the teams’ COVID-19 situation played out. At the time of this writing, 81% of tickets were on the road favorite.

In a way, the market shift on this game is eerily similar to the 49ers’ game against the Los Angeles Rams three weeks ago. After opening as 3-point favorites, the line swung a full 6 points against San Francisco, only to see the market-created home dog win outright. I was on the Niners in a buy-low spot in that game, but I am far more hesitant to recommend a similar approach for Thursday’s game given the injuries. Jimmy Garoppolo may not be a game-changing quarterback, but since acquiring him, the 49ers are 24-9 when he plays (including postseason) and just 4-11 when he doesn’t.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been dominant coming off of a loss, with an 8-0 ATS record the last eight times they’ve found themselves in the scenario. I would rather lay 5.5 Green Bay than back Nick Mullens and the 49ers in this spot. That sentiment would change though if this game continues to tick up to 6.5 or 7. Given the number of offensive players on both teams that could wind up missing this game along with both defenses looking to rebound after shaky Week 8 outings, I smell a bit of a lower scoring affair than most might expect. With just a half-point move to the Under relative to opening, the value lies there more than the spread at this juncture.

Picks: Under 50.5 Total Points (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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