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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

by January 10, 2020

In the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs, the Houston Texans return to Kansas City to take on the second-seeded Chiefs, where both teams played in Week 6. The Texans came away with a seven-point win the first time around, but will they be able to pull off the upset yet again?

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Texans at Chiefs Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Opening Lines: KC -8, O/U 49
  • Moneyline: HOU: (+350) | KC: (-440)
  • Spread: HOU: +9.5 (-105) | KC: -9.5 (-115)
  • Total: 51 — Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
  • Start Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
  • Coverage: CBS

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Texans at Chiefs >>

Injuries

  • Houston Texans: WR Will Fuller (Q), WR Kenny Stills (Q), TE Jordan Akins (Q), DE J.J. Watt (Q), S A.J. Moore Jr. (Q)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: TE Travis Kelce (Q), CB Morris Claiborne (Q)

Overview

The Texans are coming off a big overtime win at home against the Bills where they had to earn every point. They played the game without explosive wide receiver Will Fuller, and his presence was missed as the team struggled to move the ball downfield. The Texans’ offense has struggled recently, especially when compared to the opposition in this game, with Houston averaging 20.75 points over the past four games despite winning three of them. They won because of their improved defensive performance, as they’ve allowed over 21 points just once over the same four-game stretch. However, this has been one of the worst groups this season. They allowed 390.5 yards per game (28th in the NFL) and allowed opposing teams to convert 48.88 percent of their third downs (31st), which are two vital areas that point to them being unable to get off the field. That could spell trouble against the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

The Chiefs enjoyed the playoffs from home last weekend with a week off to rest and game plan. Kansas City has been overlooked for much of the season due to the Ravens or Patriots taking up the headlines, but make no mistake — this Chiefs team is every bit as good as last season. They averaged 28.2 points per game (PPG), which is the fifth-most in the league, but their defense is better than last season, allowing 349.6 yards (17th) and 19.2 PPG (7th). Last season, we all said this team was an average defense away from competing for a Super Bowl, and now Kansas City has just that.

Trends

  • The total has hit the under in seven of Houston’s last 10 games.
  • Houston is 5-2 straight up in its last seven games.
  • Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
  • The total has hit the under in five of Kansas City’s last six games.
  • The Chiefs lead the all-time series with the Texans, 6-5.
  • Last Meeting: October 13, 2019 — The Texans defeated the Chiefs, 31-24, at Arrowhead Stadium.

Prop Bet

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer/Match Winner Double: Tyreek Hill/Kansas City Chiefs (+125)
While the Texans’ pass defense has improved since moving their safeties back, they don’t have anyone that can match up with Tyreek Hill. Hill can break any play into a touchdown, and the Chiefs continue to get him in space in creative ways, giving us a higher chance at a touchdown. In the first meeting between these teams, Hill was able to find pay dirt twice through the air.

I’ll discuss why I think the Chiefs win below.

Bottom Line

The Texans offense continues to struggle, which has made every game a fight. They haven’t won a game by more than six points since their early-November game against the Jaguars. I expect their offense to continue struggling against a Chiefs defense that has been able to pull together and produce solid efforts. This is not the matchup where you can despite struggling on offense, as Houston’s defense won’t be good enough to stop a well-prepared Chiefs offense. Look for Kansas City to get the first double-digit win of the postseason.

Pick: Chiefs -9.5

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.

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