Iowa vs. South Carolina: Women’s 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Picks

South Carolina has won 42 consecutive games, are the defending National Champions, and are deservedly the heavy favorite to win it all again this year…but where’s the fun in having to fork over upwards of $400 just to profit $100?

Instead, I’m going to highlight the value in this year’s Women’s Final Four below.

Finding the Value Bets in the Women’s Final Four (2023)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

(2) Iowa Hawkeyes (+500) vs. (1) South Carolina Gamecocks (-11.5)

The aforementioned defending National Champion is undefeated at 36-0 this season. The last time South Carolina lost was March 6, 2022, in the SEC Title game to Kentucky, and even that loss was just by 2, 64-62. Aliyah Boston and the Gamecocks are dead set on becoming the first undefeated, as well as back-to-back, champions since Breanna Stewart and UConn in 2016. South Carolina plays suffocating defense, leading the country in Points Against (51.1) and Scoring Margin (29.5).

Caitlin Clark (27.3 ppg, 8.6 apg, 7.3 RPG) is coming off of a 41-point triple-double in Iowa’s Elite 8 victory over Louisville and advances to her first Final Four and Iowa’s second all-time and first since 1993. Clark became the first person, man or woman, to ever post a 40+ point triple-double in the NCAA Tournament, and it’s safe to say she’s the toughest individual test that South Carolina has faced during their win streak. It was also Clark’s 5th triple-double of the season and 11th of her career. Clark is third in the nation in scoring average, first in assists, and first in three-pointers made, averaging 3.5 per contest.

It’s nearly impossible to responsibly bet against South Carolina straight up at this point, as they have shown nothing but a will to win for over a year now. Maryland “had them on the ropes,” holding a six-point lead after the first quarter before the Gamecocks outscored them 23-9 in the second. They took an eight-point lead into halftime before extending the lead to as much as 16 in the second half. However, the Terps still covered the 15-point spread on Monday, and Clark’s scoring ability will keep Iowa in the game and should allow them to cover this matchup’s double-digit spread.

Lisa Bluder has guided the Hawkeyes to their first Final Four in her 23 years at Iowa, but it will take near perfection on her team’s part to reach the National Championship game. Iowa leads Women’s D-I in scoring at 87.6 points per game, but South Carolina isn’t far behind, averaging 80.4 (7th) per contest. However, Iowa’s defense is ranked 318th compared to SC’s #1-ranked defense. If Clark isn’t her usual walking bucket self on Friday, this game could get out of hand. That being said, all the pressure remains on South Carolina, and if Clark is feeling it early and SC wants to give her the old double-team treatment or run a Box and 1 defense, Clark has the ability to find her teammates. Monica Czinano and sharpshooter McKenna Warnock average 17.2 and 11.1 points, respectively, and are more than capable of scoring in bunches if SC chooses to play 3-on-4 against the Hawkeyes not named Caitlin Clark.

Caitlin Clark is a revolutionary talent and has the ability to carry the Hawkeyes to victory in this one, but Iowa’s margin for error is razor-thin, and even her going supernova might not be enough. However, at +500, an outright Iowa victory carries a lot of juice, so if you’re really feeling froggish, leap.

I will be taking Caitlin Clark and Co. to cover in this one.

Iowa +11.5 (-110)

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