Skip to main content

Kentucky vs. Kansas State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections

Premium Article Icon
by March 19, 2023
2023 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions (Thursday)

March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

  • 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
  • 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
  • 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
  • 2023: 201-156, +34.22 units (Through Saturday Round 2)

Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>

Subscribe to Continue Reading

Unlock powerful tools, features and content for all Sports Bettors.

Go Premium