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Matthew Freedman’s 2022 NFL Season-Long RB Projections & Prop Bets

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by August 23, 2022
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I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.

In this piece, you’ll find my running back projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.

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Some notes on my projections and process:

  • I recommend betting unders in the season-long prop market, not overs. In other words, don’t bet a whole bunch of overs just because my projections point in that direction. That would be a bad idea. I touch more on unders vs. overs in my overall guide to betting 2022 NFL season-long player props.
  • My projections are not the official BettingPros or FantasyPros projections, which are entirely independent from mine. These are just my pseudo-random projections. For the official BettingPros projections, see our season-long prop bet cheat sheet, which compares our projections with the current lines in the market to highlight the props that offer the most value. It’s a great tool. For the official FantasyPros projections, check out our season-long consensus projections page, which provides statistical forecasts for almost every skill-position player in the league.
  • My projections are solely to help me — and now you — navigate the season-long prop market. That’s it. I wouldn’t use them for making draft decisions in fantasy football, where it makes more sense to focus on upside than median outcome. For the prop market, though, the median is what matters most.
  • With the prop market in mind, I know that I don’t need these projections to be perfect, so I haven’t tried to make them perfect. I just need them to be good enough to be directionally correct. In other words, I won’t be obsessively updating these projections every day.
  • The season-long prop market is not overwhelmingly robust. You can find hundreds of wagers to make, but very few of them are for players who aren’t relevant in fantasy. You won’t find props for No. 2 quarterbacks, most No. 2 running backs, many Nos. 2-3 wide receivers and even some No. 1 tight ends. As a result, I don’t care much about being accurate with those players. I’m not ignoring their projections, but I’m also not investing extra time into working out the nuances of their projections. That would be a -EV (expected value) use of my time, especially since I can’t bet into any market to profit from my work.

2022 Season-Long NFL Running Back Projections

Projections updated as of Aug. 22

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