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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Odds & Game Pick

by December 7, 2019

Pride is all that is at stake in the second round of this AFC East matchup. In the first matchup, the Miami Dolphins pulled off the upset, winning 26-18 over their former head coach to get their first win of the season. Since that game, the Dolphins have gone 2-2, while the New York Jets have won three of their last four games. Will Adam Gase get swept by his former team, or can the Jets get some revenge this week?

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Dolphins vs Jets Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

  • Opening Lines: NYJ -5.5, O/U 44.0
  • Moneyline: MIA: (+210) | NYJ: (-245)
  • Spread: MIA: +5.5 (-110) | NYJ: -5.5 (-110)
  • Total: 45 – Over: (-115) | Under: (-105)
  • Location: MetLife Stadium — East Rutherford, NJ
  • Start Time: 1 pm ET
  • Coverage: CBS

Injuries

  • Miami Dolphins: LB Jerome Baker (Q), S Steven Parker (Q), CB Nik Needham (Q), CB Ken Webster (Q)
  • New York Jets: RB Le’Veon Bell (Q), TE Ryan Griffin (Q), WR Demaryius Thomas (Q), S Jamal Adams (Q), CB Brian Poole (Q)

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for Dolphins at Jets >>

Overview

The Miami Dolphins have certainly been more competitive recently, winning three of their past five games, averaging 24.6 points per game over than span. Much of this can be attributed to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has passed for 1,359 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions, despite being sacked at least three times in each of the games. He has also added 72 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, extending drives with his legs when there is no other reliable rusher to do so. Defensively, the Dolphins still struggle to stop anyone, surrendering 27.8 points per game in that five-game stretch, despite their winning record. Their offense will need to put up points if they hope to have a chance on Sunday.

Following their loss to Miami the first time around, the Jets responded in a big way, winning their next three games by a +55 point differential. Once there was a sense of confidence in the team again, they failed to find the end zone against the then-winless Cincinnati Bengals, allowing Andy Dalton to rise from the dead and deliver his team its first win. Still, the Jets have been much better at home this season, winning three of their past four games in MetLife Stadium, with the only loss coming against the New England Patriots. At their best, they are a more complete team than Miami. At their worst, their quarterback develops a sixth sense, whether it be seeing ghosts against the Patriots or watching the ghost of Dalton embarrass them last week.

Trends

  • Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games against the Jets.
  • The total has hit the over in four of Miami’s last five games.
  • The total has hit the under in seven of the Jets’ last nine games when playing at home against Miami.
  • The Jets are 3-8 straight up in their last 11 games at home.
  • The Jets lead the all-time series with the Dolphins, 54-53-1.
  • Last Meeting: November 3, 2019 — The Dolphins defeated the Jets, 26-18, at Hard Rock Stadium.

Prop Bet

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Away Team Total Points: Over 20 Points (-114)
The Dolphins may not be a great team, but behind the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick, this team can put up points. In Miami’s last five games, which includes the win against the Jets, they have averaged 24.6 points scored per game. They have scored at least 20 in four of the games. Meanwhile, the Jets gave up 22 points to Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals last week. They also surrendered 26 points to Miami in the first matchup. The weakness for the Jets’ defense is their secondary, while Miami’s strength is clearly their passing game.

Bottom Line

When looking at coaches, it appears Brian Flores has the Dolphins more prepared and playing with more energy than the Jets. Comparing quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick is making something out of almost literally nothing, while Sam Darnold crumbles when he takes any hit to his confidence. The Jets very well could pull out this win, especially if Le’Veon Bell is a full go, but Miami’s offense is playing well enough to make it a game, and I predict they will cover this spread after doing so in six of their past eight games.

Pick: Miami Dolphins +5.5

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.