March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)
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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)
Get the FREE BettingPros sports betting app and start making winning bets with expert advice and picks >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Miami vs. UConn
Miami Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Isaiah Wong |
14.9 |
4.3 |
2.4 |
19.2 |
17.3 |
21.6 |
1.1 |
5.0 |
| Jordan Miller |
14.3 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
20.4 |
16.3 |
22.4 |
0.6 |
3.3 |
| Norchad Omier |
12.2 |
9.8 |
0.9 |
22.0 |
13.1 |
23.0 |
0.1 |
3.6 |
| Nijel Pack |
13.0 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
15.7 |
14.8 |
17.5 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
| Wooga Poplar |
9.3 |
3.8 |
1.3 |
13.1 |
10.6 |
14.3 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
| Bensley Joseph |
3.4 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
4.9 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
| Harlond Beverly |
2.4 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Anthony Walker |
2.2 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
3.3 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| AJ Casey |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Christian Watson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Favour Aire |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jakai Robinson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Filippos Gkogkos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Danilo Jovanovich |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
UConn Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Adama Sanogo |
16.9 |
7.7 |
1.4 |
24.5 |
18.2 |
25.9 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
| Jordan Hawkins |
16.5 |
4.0 |
1.5 |
20.5 |
18.0 |
22.0 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
| Tristen Newton |
10.0 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
14.6 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
1.2 |
2.8 |
| Alex Karaban |
8.9 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
13.2 |
10.7 |
15.0 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
| Donovan Clingan |
6.2 |
5.2 |
0.4 |
11.4 |
6.6 |
11.8 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Andre Jackson |
7.4 |
7.2 |
5.6 |
14.7 |
13.0 |
20.3 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
| Joey Calcaterra |
5.4 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
8.4 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
| Nahiem Alleyne |
4.9 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
6.0 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
| Hassan Diarra |
1.1 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
| Richie Springs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Samson Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Apostolos Roumoglou |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andrew Hurley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Yarin Hasson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Emmett Hendry |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Andre Johnson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Miami vs. UConn Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Miami
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Isaiah Wong Over 2.5 Assists |
148 |
1 |
1.48 |
UB |
| Nijel Pack Under 19.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Norchad Omier Over 11.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Jordan Miller Under 6.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
UConn
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Adama Sanogo Under 8.5 Rebounds |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Tristen Newton Under 5.5 Rebounds |
-122 |
1.22 |
1 |
FD |
| Alex Karaban Over 1.5 3Ps |
130 |
1 |
1.3 |
MGM |
| Andre Jackson Under 6.5 Assists |
-152 |
1.52 |
1 |
FD |
More Player Prop Bet Picks
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