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Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

by November 2, 2019
Dalvin Cook

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The biggest question of this game revolves around the status of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He hasn’t officially been cleared by team doctors. However, the 2018 MVP has been practicing in a limited capacity this week. We’ll likely receive a definitive answer this weekend, but it appears backup quarterback Matt Moore could receive another start. Several sportsbooks have failed to post an over/under on this game due to the uncertain status of Mahomes. 

As for the Vikings, they are flying high after winning four straight games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month after putting up with a ton of criticism to begin the season. However, it’s worth mentioning that Minnesota has been a different team on the road, going 2-2 while starting slow in the majority of those contests. On the other hand, the Vikings had 10 days to prepare for this matchup after playing last Thursday. 

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The spread has held after opening late at Vikings -2.5. The over/under has yet to be posted. 
  • Current Line: Vikings -2.5 FanDuel Sportsbook
  • O/U: N/A at FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
  • Start Time: 1:00pm ET
  • Television: FOX
  • Last Meeting: October 18, 2015 – Vikings defeated Chiefs 16-10 in Minnesota

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Vikings at Chiefs >>

Overview

We are operating under the assumption that Matt Moore will start at quarterback for Kansas City. While he looked steady last Sunday night against the Packers, that came on the heels of 10 days of game planning. He won’t have that luxury this time around, and Minnesota represents a capable opponent with an above-average pressure rate. 

On the other side, will Kirk Cousins succumb to the wide home/road splits of his career? The Minnesota quarterback holds a career 126.2 rating at home compared to just 105.7 on the road. Having running back Dalvin Cook set up play-action situations should help, but the Vikings will need to get off to a fast start in order to avoid predictable passing situations. That has been the recipe for success throughout their current four-game winning streak. 

Trends

  • The Vikings are 6-3 ATS vs the AFC since 2017. 
  • The Chiefs are 3-6-1 vs the NFC since 2017.
  • The Vikings are 6-3 to the over vs the AFC since 2017.
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 to the over vs the NFC since 2018. 

Prop Bets

Dalvin Cook OVER 19 carries 
Expect to see a steady dose of Dalvin Cook in this one. The Minnesota running back has topped 21 carries in three of his last four games, and he enters this contest fresh off 10 days of rest. Running the ball is the best way to attack this Kansas City defense, as the Chiefs rank 30th in rushing yards allowed and 29th in yards per rushing attempt (4.9). 

Bottom Line

I like the Vikings here. As mentioned earlier, Dalvin Cook should be able to set the tone early and often with the run game. Minnesota is at their best when that happens, and quarterback Kirk Cousins should benefit from potentially having WR Adam Thielen (questionable) back in the mix as well. 

Pick: Vikings -2.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 9

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (+4)
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+3)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+7)

Spencer Limbach is a featured writer at BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Spencer, check out his archive and follow him @spencer_jl.