MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (4/12)

Overs went 10-5 around Major League Baseball yesterday, continuing the trend that they have been the right side of the total, cashing in 57.7% of all games (94-69-7). Will those high-scoring trends continue today?

Here are our MLB best bets for Wednesday.

YTD: 15-17-1 (+0.72 units)

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston Astros (-178) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) | O/U 9.5 (+102/-124)

The Astros have turned it on offensively of late, with five or more runs scored in four of their last six games. Now they face Pirates lefty Rich Hill, who is a respectable 3-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 12 career appearances (eight starts) against the Astros. However, those numbers are a bit misleading, as he has made just two starts against them since 2021 and has not lasted past the third inning either time.

Houston entered Tuesday ranked third in the league in wRC+ and fourth in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. While its 22nd-ranked .283 BABIP against southpaws pales in comparison to the rest of the league, its .354 OBP ranks seventh, which means Astros hitters have done a lot of damage in the power department against southpaws, especially with men on base. Hill has allowed an xSLG of .815 and xOBA of .488 in nine innings of work this year. And while he is not usually asked to work deep into games, that may be more of a necessity as the Pirates bullpen has been overworked, throwing at least five innings in three of the previous five games.

The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams and has cashed in nine of Houston’s previous 11 overall. We expect Houston to do its part in ensuring those trends continue today with another successful day at the plate.

Pick: Astros Team Total Over 5 runs (-120)

Chicago White Sox (+132) vs. Minnesota Twins (-156) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

If Chicago does not get better production from 3/5 of its pitching staff, it could be buried early in the AL Central race. The White Sox are 5-0 in games started by Dylan Cease and Mike Clevinger but are 0-7 when Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, and today’s starter, Lucas Giolito, take the mound. Giolito was tagged for 12 hits and seven earned runs in four innings in his last start against the Pirates. And if that was not problematic enough, Giolito struck out just three batters and is putting his streak of four consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate of 9.9 or better in serious jeopardy.

Giolito struck out 29.5% of all left-handed batters he faced last year. Still, Minnesota’s lineup is loaded with right-handed bats, specifically Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa at the top of the lineup. Giolito’s history against the Twins suggests he should be in line for a bounce-back start, as he has held current hitters to a .170/.252/.311 slash line and struck out 43 in 106 combined at-bats. However, Giolito’s velocity is down on three of his four pitches (curveball, slider, changeup) from last year, which suggests he may not be all that comfortable yet with the new pitch clock rules.

A play on Minnesota’s runline goes against certain trends of this rivalry, as five of the previous 11 games between these teams have been decided by one run (including each of the first two of this series). However, White Sox All-Star shortstop Tim Anderson is out for the next 2-4 weeks, leaving a big hole at the top of the lineup. In addition, we have faith in Sonny Gray, who is coming off a career-high 13 strikeouts, and leads the team in WAR (0.7).

1️⃣3️⃣ strikeouts, a career-high for Sonny Gray! ☀️?'?

Sonny gets ?"? #Supercharged ?"?to a 9️⃣9️⃣ OVR for 5 days.#MLBTheShowSC| #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/oZwifvDMz7

— MLB The Show (@MLBTheShow) April 10, 2023

Pick: Twins RL (+122)

Cincinnati Reds (+225) vs. Atlanta Braves (-275) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)

If you do not like the number of strikeouts in the game today, you may not want to tune into tonight’s Reds-Braves matchup. Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider face off as two of the game’s most elite strikeout starting pitchers. Here is a screenshot of how electric Greene’s stuff, in particular, is.

https://twitter.com/TalkinBaseball_/status/1643740405136240642

Despite that velocity, it has not equated to hard-hit balls, as Greene ranks in the 21st percentile in hard-hit percentage and 14th percentile in average exit velocity.

His counterpart, Spencer Strider, was one of the top favorites to lead the league in strikeouts to start the season. Strider’s whiff percentage and strikeout percentage rank in the 88th and 93rd percentile, respectively, and his slider and changeup each have generated a whiff percentage of 57.7% or higher.

We are taking the bullpens out of the equation with this wager, especially because Cincinnati’s relievers entered Tuesday ranked 23rd with a collective 5.18 ERA, and Atlanta’s were in the bottom half of the league with a 4.33 FIP.

The Under is 17-9-1 in Cincinnati’s last 27 games overall and has cashed in four of Atlanta’s last five home games against teams with a losing record. Thus, we expect Greene and Strider to continue these trends and match each other pitch for pitch in the first half of this game.

Pick: Reds-Braves First Five Innings Under 4.5 runs (-128)

Check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.