We’ve nailed a home run prop in three consecutive articles after Bryce Harper came through last night at +410 odds. This weekend, we’ve nailed Daylen Lile (+610) and Harper (+410). Let’s get greedy. Check out my top three MLB home run props for tonight’s massive slate.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Olson (+320)
Matt Olson has slugged a .469 ISO and a wOBA of .335 against his righties over the last month. The left-handed first baseman has hit 40.5% of fly balls with 62.2% of hard contact and a 21.6% barrel rate against righties.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Brayan Bello of the Red Sox, who has been really bad against lefties. Ultimately, Bello has allowed a .377 ISO and a wOBA of .506 against his last 61 lefties. He’s also given up more fly balls than ground balls to lefties and a 24.4% barrel rate over the last month to lefties. Bello has struck out just 13.1% of lefties over the last month.
Let’s give Olson a try at +320 to hit a long ball.
Daylen Lile (+520)
Let’s give Daylen Lile another go.
Lile has hit a .397 ISO and a wOBA of .452 against his last 78 righties. He’s also struck out just 19.2% of the time against righties and has hit 53.7% of fly balls with 51.9% of hard contact and a 18.5% barrel rate against righties.
Lile is set to face Brandon Young of the Orioles, who has allowed a .245 ISO and a wOBA of .360 to his last 56 lefties this season. Young has also given up 47.7% of hard contact and 36.4% of fly balls, while allowing an 11.4% barrel rate over the last month against lefties.
This is another really good matchup for Lile. Let’s see if he can remain hot against righties.
Seiya Suzuki (+470)
Seiya Suzuki has smashed right-handed pitching over the last month, hitting a .309 ISO and a wOBA of .418 against righties during that stretch. He’ll compete against Erick Fedde of the White Sox, who has allowed a .471 ISO and a wOBA of .427 to right-handed batters as a right-handed pitcher.
Fedde has been somewhat OK against lefties. But the righty has been awful against righties, allowing 39.5% fly balls with only 14.5% of strikeouts. Ultimately, Fedde has a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .143 against righties over the last month. It’s hard to believe that it will stick if he continues to allow these types of numbers to righties.
Let’s give Suzuki a try today.
