I am looking to get back on track after a rough showing last week. None of my MLB home run props hit, as I had to settle for a double off the wall from Nolan Arenado.
The good news is that there are multiple spots for us to take advantage of this week from a betting perspective. Here are my top three home run bets for Tuesday's MLB slate.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+265 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has gotten on track after a slow start at the plate. Over his last eight games, he has 16 hits, including five home runs. In his last nine outings (30 batted-ball events), he's produced 18 hard-hit balls and eight barrels. On Tuesday, he'll aim to improve those numbers against Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field.
Sugano has struggled this season, ranking in the league’s bottom 1% in xERA, xBA and barrel rate allowed. His whiff and strikeout rates are also low, ranking in the second and third percentiles, respectively. He has allowed eight home runs to left-handed hitters in just 29.2 innings.
Although Sugano struck out Crow-Armstrong twice in three at-bats last season, that was during a slump when Crow-Armstrong went 3-for-41 with zero home runs. He is now in much better form.
We also cannot discount the Coors Field factor. It's considered the best hitting park in the Majors, posting an overall park factor of 114 for lefties this season, including a 126 mark for home runs.
Crow-Armstrong will lead off today with a strong chance at five plate appearances - likely three versus Sugano and the rest versus Colorado's bullpen. Rockies relievers have allowed the sixth-highest ERA and eighth-highest home run rate among all bullpens. All this makes Pete Crow-Armstrong my top bet to homer on Tuesday night.
Brice Turang (+500 at theScore Bet)/Jake Bauers (+320 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
If Monday night's game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Athletics was any indication, Las Vegas Ballpark makes Coors Field look like Death Valley or Yellowstone Park.
The Brewers and Athletics combined for 29 runs and 11 (yes, 11) home runs in Monday night's 12-inning affair. Sure, three of those longballs took place during extra innings. But that still means the teams hit eight home runs over the first nine innings. Brice Turang and Jake Bauers both went yard for Milwaukee on Monday, and I expect them to do the same on Tuesday.
According to Ballpark Pal, Las Vegas Ballpark is highly susceptible to wind, with open-air architecture similar to Sutter Health Park. Winds are expected to blow out to right field for this game, with temperatures around 90 degrees. While 11 more home runs are unlikely, it's a great situation for hitters.
Athletics starting pitcher J.T. Ginn struggled against lefties at home last season, allowing eight home runs in 16.2 innings. He has been better with one homer allowed in 13.1 innings this year. Ginn’s true skill likely sits between those extremes, so this is not a matchup I am avoiding.
I like both Turang and Bauers for a couple of reasons. Both have strong stats against Ginn's pitch mix. Ginn features a change-up, sinker, cutter, four-seam fastball and slider to left-handed batters. Against right-handers who use those pitches, Turang has a .621 slugging rate, and Bauers has an .848 mark. Both have hit nine home runs off righties this year.
Following Monday's wild affair, the Athletics’ bullpen is extremely compromised. Neither of their left-handed relievers figures to be available for this game. Other high-leverage relievers like Mark Leiter Jr. and Justin Sterner have pitched on back-to-back days. The team will need to rely on Ginn and some lesser arms to make it through Milwaukee's tough lineup.
I won't dissuade anyone from betting on popular Athletics hitters such as Nick Kurtz or Shea Langeliers. Their pricing is just a bit too low for my liking.
I also wouldn't mind going the other direction and picking some longer shots based on what we saw on Monday. Having said all that, I am betting that Turang and Bauers are the value plays we need for a profitable Dinger Tuesday.
