MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions (Monday)

I've only got one play on my NRFI card on this Monday evening, which features a tiny slate of just six games, and I'm looking at an AL East matchup that features two of the more dominant right-handed starting pitchers in the game. Drew Rasmussen has been one of the most overlooked starting pitchers in baseball for a few years running now, and he'll be up against Kevin Gausman who is putting together yet another rock-solid year at the top of the Blue Jays rotation. See the full breakdown for my favorite MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks below.

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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

(Odds courtesy to FanDuel Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

Gausman enters this game with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, right on track to continue his streak of six consecutive seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA. Gausman's pitching run values grade out among the elite, with a 96^th percentile overall pitching run value, a 98^th percentile fastball run value, and a 90^th percentile offspeed run value highlighted by his patented splitter. Gausman's 3.38 xERA suggests that he's pretty much been just as good as his numbers indicate, which he does by avoiding hard contact and generating plenty of swing-and-misses. He ranks in the 63^rd percentile in terms of hard-hit rate with a 70^th percentile average exit velocity, and he has a 64^th percentile whiff rate with an 86^th percentile chase rate. He also avoids free base runners with the best of them, holding a sterling walk rate of just 4.9% which has him in the 94^th percentile. Even though the Rays lineup seemingly exceeds expectations on a yearly basis, they rank just 24^th in SLG this season and I love Gausman to neutralize the right-handed bats of Yandy Diaz and Junior Camineiro at the top of Tampa's batting order.

For as good as Gausman has been, his opponent Drew Rasmussen is looking to continue his streak of five consecutive seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. Rasmussen's pitching run values grade out pretty well in their own right, with a 76^th percentile overall pitching run value and an 86^th percentile fastball run value. His xERA of 3.19 is only slightly above his actual ERA and has him in the top quartile of all pitchers, again suggesting that he's been just as good as his numbers indicate. Rasmussen also does an exceptional job avoiding hard contact, with a hard hit rate and average exit velocity which both grade out above the 70^th percentile, and he generates a sufficient amount of whiffs with a 70^th percentile strikeout rate and a 72^nd percentile chase rate. His walk rate is even better than that of Gausman's, sitting at 4.1%, and his 51% ground ball rate has him above the 80^th percentile in that category. While the Blue Jays hit for a high average, they still rank in the bottom half of the league in OBP, OPS, SLG and HR, and I like Rasmussen as a righty against Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Kazuma Okamoto.

Pick: NRFI (-140)

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