I've got another 2-pack of picks on this Tuesday evening's slate of games, starting in Pittsburgh where the Dodgers are... underdogs? That inevitably means that Paul Skenes is taking the mound for the Pirates, though I'm not so sure that the starting pitching advantage should reflect this price on the 2-time defending World Champions. They do have the worst starting pitcher going on my card though, as I'm targeting an under in a stellar AL East starting pitching matchup as my second play of the night. Here are our top MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, June 9.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Picks & Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
With a price like this, you know that Paul Skenes must be going for the Pirates. While Skenes is still debatably the top starting pitcher in the league on any given night, the numbers suggest that he hasn't been quite as dominant as he was last season. For starters, his 3.09 ERA is the highest of his career by a significant margin. His breaking ball has graded out lower this year and more closely resembles his rookie season, and both his whiff rate and ground ball rate are the lowest of his career. That's all the nitpicking I'll do regarding Skenes, the Pirates are going to have the starting pitching advantage every time he takes the mound.
The Dodgers will counter with Eric Lauer, who has enjoyed the change of scenery coming over to Los Angeles after getting pretty roughed up as a member of the Blue Jays to begin the season. Because of his poor start to the season, his season-long numbers do not look very appetizing and his underlying metrics back those numbers up. He has been quite serviceable for the Dodgers though, allowing just 3 ER over 10.1 IP including his best performance of the year where he allowed just 1 ER over 6 IP and surrendered just 4 H to the Rockies.
Offensively, while the Pirates have certainly been much improved this season, the Dodgers still boast the best offense in baseball without much argument to be had. The Dodgers lead baseball in terms of AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and rank top-6 in terms of BB, K, HR, RBI, and R. They've got as good a chance as anyone at putting up some runs against Skenes, and at least keeping the game close until we get to the bullpens. When it comes to those bullpens, the Dodgers have the clear advantage. They rank just outside the top-10 in terms of ERA and boast the 2nd-best WHIP in the league. They have 2 more saves, have allowed 51 fewer hits, 34 fewer ER, 8 fewer HR, and 41 fewer BB.
Overall, while the Pirates obviously have a major starting pitching advantage with Skenes going tonight, the Dodgers have the advantage in every other aspect of the game. Unless the Pirates really get to Lauer early, I see this as a close game in the late innings where the tables will turn dramatically in the Dodgers’ favor. I can't justify the fact that the Dodgers are underdogs in this game, and I'll take them at this price every time no matter who is taking the opposing mound.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
We've got a pretty underrated pitching matchup in the AL East on Tuesday night, with Nick Martinez taking on Payton Tolle. The Rays have turned Nick Martinez into quite a weapon, who lives off of generating soft contact. Martinez has an overall pitching run value that grades out in the 88th percentile, with an 80th percentile fastball run value and incredible offspeed which grades out in the 99th percentile. He has one of the best walk rates in baseball at just 4.5%, with a hard-hit rate in the 82nd percentile and an average exit velocity in the 87th percentile. He's got some swing and miss in his arsenal as well, grading out among the top third of pitchers in terms of chase rate.
Meanwhile, Red Sox top prospect Payton Tolle has been everything the Sox could have ever hoped for. Tolle's 2.28 ERA is incredible, but what's more impressive is that it's essentially mirrored by his 97th percentile xERA of 2.31. His xBA of 0.191 grades out in the 92nd percentile, and he ranks above the 70th percentile in all of the following categories: average exit velocity, chase rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. His array of pitches grades out incredibly as well, with an 89th percentile overall pitching run value and a 93rd percentile fastball run value.
When it comes to bullpens, Boston has one of the best in baseball, currently ranking 3rd overall in both WHIP and ERA. While Tampa Bay hasn't been quite as lights-out as some of their previous iterations, I do trust them organizationally to get that turned around though, and I believe that their numbers will reflect that as we get deeper into the season. Offensively, neither one of these teams boasts much power, as both rank in the bottom-10 in terms of SLG. That's due in large part to the lack of HR hit by the teams, as the Rays have the 3rd-fewest bombs in the league and the Red Sox rank dead-last. The caliber of starting pitching combined with the Red Sox bullpen and the lack of offensive firepower has all the makings for an under in this divisional showdown.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-110 at Bet365)
